True Cost of War
The Conflict in Eastern Ukraine
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19312816 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Erhan Artuc (0000-0001-9055-7934, Development Economics Research Group, World Bank, Washington, DC), Nicolas Gomez-Parra (0000-0002-2176-3790, World Bank, Washington, DC), Harun Onder (0000-0002-0491-688X, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Pages | 1-30 |
| Publication date | 2026-03-24 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Review of Economics and Statistics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0034-6535 • E-ISSN: 1530-9142 |
| Publisher | MIT Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1162/rest.a.1737 |
| OpenAlex | W7140183112 |
| Language | EN |
This paper proposes a new method to estimate the welfare impact of conflicts and remedy common data constraints in conflict-affected environments. The method first estimates how agents regard spatial welfare differentials by voting with their feet, using pre-conflict data. Then, it infers a lower-bound estimate for the conflict-driven welfare shock from partially observed post-conflict migration patterns. Results for the conflict in Eastern Ukraine between 2014 and 2019 show a large lower-bound welfare loss for Donetsk residents equivalent to 8–32 percent of lifetime income depending on agents’ time preference and risk aversion parameters
Estimation · Majority rule · Preference · Risk aversion (psychology) · Shock (circulatory) · Voting · Welfare · Economic Policies and Impacts · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies · Politics, Economics, and Education Policy
| Highly cited | No |
|---|