Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19317455 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Anthony Garratt (Birkbeck, University of London), Kevin Lee (0000-0001-6334-3383, University of Leicester), Emi Mise (University of Leicester), Kalvinder Shields (0000-0002-3056-8364, The University of Melbourne) |
| Year | 2008 |
| Volume | 90 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 792-804 |
| Publication date | 2008-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Review of Economics and Statistics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0034-6535 • E-ISSN: 1530-9142 |
| Publisher | MIT Press - Journals (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1162/rest.90.4.792 |
| OpenAlex | W2109688870 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 22 |
Methods are described for the appropriate use of data obtained and analysed in real time to represent the output gap. The methods employ cointegrating VAR techniques to model real-time measures and realizations of output series jointly. The model is used to mitigate the impact of data revisions; to generate appropriate forecasts that can deliver economically meaningful output trends and that can take into account the end-of-sample problems encountered in measuring these trends; and to calculate probability forecasts that convey in a clear way the uncertainties associated with the gap measures. The methods are applied to data for the United States 1965q4–2004q4, and the improvements over standard methods are illustrated
Econometrics · Economics · Machine learning · Macroeconomics · Monetary policy · Output gap · Sample (material) · Series (stratigraphy) · Time series · Computer Science · Economic Growth and Productivity · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates
Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate
A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal From Uncertain Data
Improving Real-Time Estimates of Output and Inflation Gaps With Multiple-Vintage Models
Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter
Predicting Early Data Revisions to U.S. GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets
Assessing Macro Uncertainty in Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision
Postwar U.S. Business Cycles
A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’
Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data
A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal From Uncertain Data
The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time
The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting
The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting
| Unique citing works | 7 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,41 |
| Citation span | 2009 - 2024 (16) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 7 |