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Approximate Variational Estimation for a Model of Network Formation

Bibliographic Data

ID19317935
AuthorsAngelo Mele (0000-0003-2890-6042, Johns Hopkins University), Lingjiong Zhu (0000-0001-7595-160X, Florida State University)
Year2023
Volume105
Issue1
Pages113-124
Publication date2023-01-06
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Review of Economics and Statistics (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0034-6535 • E-ISSN: 1530-9142
PublisherMIT Press (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1162/rest_a_01023
OpenAlexW3159918802
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited26

We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations; however, convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a deterministic method, based on a variational mean-field approximation of the ERGM's normalizing constant. We compute lower and upper bounds for the approximation error for any network size, adapting nonlinear large deviation results. This translates into bounds on the distance between true likelihood and mean-field likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that in practice, our deterministic method performs better than our conservative theoretical approximation bounds imply, for a large class of models

Combinatorics · Constant (computer programming) · Convergence (economics) · Exponential random graph models · Graph · Mathematical optimization · Mean field theory · Monte Carlo method · Nonlinear system · Random graph · Rate of convergence · Statistics · Advanced Causal Inference Techniques · Applied Mathematics · Computer Science · Markov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods · Mathematics · Statistical Methods and Inference

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Citations per year0.25
Citation span2022 - 2022 (1)
Highly citedNo

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