Effectiveness of vaccination, travel load, and facemask use control strategies for controlling Covid Delta variant

The case of Sydney Metropolitan Area

Bibliographic Data

ID19338936
AuthorsMaliheh Tabasi (0000-0001-5824-767X, UNSW Sydney), Ali Najmi (0000-0002-3260-0911, UNSW Sydney), Eric J Miller (0000-0003-1452-2179), C Raina Macintyre (0000-0002-3060-0555, New South Wales Institute of Psychiatry), Taha H Rashidi (0000-0002-0673-5011, UNSW Sydney, corresponding author)
Year2025
Volume52
Issue4
Pages1709-1743
Publication date2025-08-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueTransportation (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0049-4488 • E-ISSN: 1572-9435
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s11116-024-10471-y
OpenAlexW4392881062
LanguageEN
References cited54

The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, specifically identified as B.1.617.2, is responsible for the severe outbreaks witnessed globally, including in various countries and cities, with Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (Sydney GMA) being no exception. According to scientific studies, the Delta strain exhibits increased contagion and leads to a higher incidence of vaccine breakthrough cases, posing significant challenges to pandemic control efforts. In this study, we explore the efficacy of three fundamental control strategies—namely, vaccination rates, adherence to facemask usage, and the management of travel loads—in mitigating the spread of the disease and, consequently, eliminating the Delta variant pandemic in Sydney GMA. We employ an agent-based disease spread model to thoroughly investigate these strategies. Moreover, factorial MANOVA is utilised to assess the significance of variations in the impact of diverse compliance levels with the aforementioned control strategies on various attributes of the pandemic. As complete lockdowns and stringent travel regulations have the potential to induce physical and mental distress in individuals and economic crises for countries, our study examines the interactive effects of implementing control strategies to mitigate the necessity for a full lockdown. The simulation results suggest that suppressing a pandemic with similar characteristics to Delta variant of COVID is feasible with a vaccination rate of 80% or higher, as long as travel load and activity participation are maintained at pre-COVID levels. Alternatively, a more realistic and attainable combination of control measures—a vaccination rate of 60%, a facemask usage level of 60%, and a 50% compliance level for social distancing—demonstrates comparable efficacy, leading to effective pandemic control. Notably, the vaccination rate emerges as a more potent control strategy compared to others in the elimination of the disease within society

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Control (management) · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Geography · Metropolitan area · Outbreak · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) · Transport engineering · Travel time · Vaccination · Computer Science · COVID-19 and Mental Health · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Engineering · Medicine · Virology

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