Who succeeds and who fails? Comparing the impact of admissions and first-year performance on academic success
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19378010 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Petr Distler (0000-0001-6795-2135, Charles University), Martin Šrámek (0000-0002-5519-9876, Charles University), Milada Teplá (0000-0001-8349-8163, Charles University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Pages | 1-22 |
| Publication date | 2026-03-04 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0260-2938 • E-ISSN: 1469-297X |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/02602938.2026.2635613 |
| OpenAlex | W7133770467 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 42 |
The study provides new empirical evidence on the predictive validity of university admission procedures and early academic performance on long-term academic success. Focusing on a cohort of undergraduate students in Chemistry Education at Charles University (N = 111), we compared the predictive power of two types of admission tests, knowledge-based subject tests and a general aptitude test (GAP), contrasting them with first-year academic indicators. Results show that admission scores exhibit a moderate but statistically significant relationship with academic success (ρ = 0.40), with knowledge-based tests demonstrating higher predictive validity than GAP tests. However, first-year academic performance, particularly the number of credits earned, proved to be the strongest determinant of degree completion (e^β = 1.28; p = 0.046). Analysis of compulsory courses further revealed that Mathematics and Inorganic Chemistry II act as gateway courses predicting progression. The study highlights the limited long-term predictive value of admission examinations and the decisive role of the first study year in shaping academic trajectories. Integrating admission and early performance data can provide higher education institutions with rapid, evidence-based feedback for refining selection processes and developing targeted first-year support interventions
Academic achievement · Graduate students · Higher education · Qualitative research · Statistical analysis · Higher Education Research Studies · Medical Education and Admissions · Student Assessment and Feedback
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| Highly cited | No |
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