Population decline and data discrepancies
Evaluating ACS estimates and comprehensive plan projections for a subset of U.S. shrinking cities
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19383464 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Victoria Morckel (0000-0002-0591-3998, Michigan State University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 40 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 954-964 |
| Publication date | 2025-07-04 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Planning Practice and Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0269-7459 • E-ISSN: 1360-0583 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/02697459.2025.2519365 |
| OpenAlex | W4411615894 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 9 |
Accurate population estimates and projections are crucial for urban planning, especially in shrinking cities. This paper evaluates discrepancies between the 2020 decennial census and the 2019 1-year and 5-year estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS). The results suggest that the ACS likely overestimates population figures in rapidly shrinking cities. Additionally, an analysis of comprehensive plans shows that cities experiencing long-term shrinkage depend on ACS data to describe trends, but population projections are often inaccurate or neglected. These insights highlight the need for increased awareness of ACS limitations to prevent misguided planning decisions
Archaeology · Business · Economic geography · Economic policy · Geography · Political science · Population · Regional science · Resizing · Sociology · Demography · Migration, Aging, and Tourism Studies · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies · Urbanization and City Planning
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |