Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Betas

Longitudinal Feedback in Multifactor Asset Pricing

Bibliographic Data

ID19418887
AuthorsStefano Grassi (0000-0002-2686-6529, University of Rome Tor Vergata, corresponding author), Francesco Violante (0000-0002-1529-0843, Institut d'Economie Scientifique Et de Gestion)
Year2025
Volume43
Issue4
Pages1132-1144
Publication date2025-10-02
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Business and Economic Statistics (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0735-0015 • E-ISSN: 1537-2707
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/07350015.2025.2478984
OpenAlexW4408610261
LanguageEN
References cited42

We propose a new class of observation-driven models, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Betas, which describe the joint dynamics of time-varying slopes in a system of conditionally heteroskedastic simultaneous multiple regressions. The model accommodates large dimensions, parametric longitudinal restrictions, exogenous variables, and the coexistence of constant and time-varying slopes. It also introduces new mechanisms for the transmission of shocks, namely, beta spillovers. We derive stationarity and uniform invertibility conditions and present beta and covariance tracking constraints. We show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator and propose several parallel and sequential variants of it. Their finite sample properties are evaluated via Monte Carlo experiments. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of modeling beta spillovers in the Fama-French three-factor asset pricing model. The results show that our model is useful for describing the transmission of shocks in financial markets

Autoregressive model · Capital asset pricing model · Econometrics · Economics · Financial economics · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · Financial Markets and Investment Strategies · Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling

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