Dados Bibliográficos

AUTOR(ES) J. Leach , R. Coles , J. Brown , C.T. Boyko , M. Barnes , L. Jankovic , Stephen Atkinson , Deborah Butler , D. Rachel Lombardi , Austin R. G. Barber , John Bryson , Silvio Caputo , Maria Caserio , Rachel F. D. Cooper , Raziyeh Farmani , Mark Gaterell , James Hale , Chantal Hales , C. Nicholas Hewitt , I. Jefferson , A. Rob MacKenzie , Fayyaz Ali Memon , Jon P. Sadler , Carina Weingaertner , J. Duncan Whyatt , Christopher D. F. Rogers , D.V.L. Hunt
AFILIAÇÃO(ÕES) Faculty of Arts and Social Science/Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YD, UK, Birmingham City University, University of Birmingham, The Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA14YQ, UK, Center for Water Systems/College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK, Department of Sustainable Construction, Coventry University Technology Park, Coventry, CV1 5FB, UK, Birmingham Institute of Art and Design (BIAD), Birmingham City University, Birmingham B4 7DX, UK
ANO 2009
TIPO Book
ADICIONADO EM 2025-08-14
MD5 551afadb5e406358538f10822aab56b9
MD5 e71560b2e562cdcc3f06ed4d15f8578a

Resumo

Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

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