The impact of production structure changes in China’s manufacturing industry on CO2 emissions

An extended input–output subsystem and decomposition analysis

Bibliographic Data

ID19468035
AuthorsLiuguo Shao (0000-0002-2976-5037, Central South University), Jixin Wen (Central South University, corresponding author), Jiajun Yang (0000-0003-3844-0055, Central South University), Xunpeng Shi (0000-0001-9653-7395, University of Technology Sydney), Manzhi Liu (0000-0003-4533-8489, China University of Mining and Technology)
Year2026
Publication date2026-05-04
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Industrial Ecology (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1088-1980 • E-ISSN: 1530-9290
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s44498-026-00078-0
OpenAlexW7160205515
LanguageEN
References cited33

Given that manufacturing consumes more than 50% of China’s fossil energy, shifting the manufacturing production structure towards less carbon-intensive processes is a key lever for achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. However, rigorously assessing how those structural changes affect emissions is lacking in evaluations of emissions reductions in downstream sectors—particularly the impact of indirect emissions. This study extends a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method within a Ghosh input–output subsystem to quantify how shifts in input structure and production technology drive CO 2 emissions across the entire economy, including both direct and indirect emissions. An empirical analysis is conducted on China’s manufacturing industry during 2005–2020. The results show that the embodied CO 2 emissions in China’s manufacturing forward linkages increased from 2822.5 Mt in 2005 to 5540.8 Mt in 2020. The scale of primary factors in manufacturing exhibited a gradually weakening carbon-promoting effect. The allocation structure effect of primary factors in manufacturing exhibits an inverted “V” trend—demonstrating a carbon-inhibiting effect in 2005–2010 and 2015–2020, but a carbon-promoting effect in 2010–2015. However, the carbon-inhibiting contributions of all sub-effects of the CO 2 emission multiplier for manufacturing direct forward linkages showed a clear trend of weakening or reversal during the 2015–2020 period. This study emphasizes the critical role of manufacturing resource allocation and technological progress of key production linkages for formulating carbon emission reduction policies

Advanced manufacturing · Decomposition · Final demand · Input–output model · Manufacturing · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth · Environmental Impact and Sustainability

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access