The future of cement
Technological innovation in representative concentration pathways
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19469398 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ben Maes (0000-0002-3376-3923, Energy and Materials in Infrastructure and Buildings (EMIB) University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium, corresponding author), Amaryllis Audenaert (0000-0003-4291-580X, Energy and Materials in Infrastructure and Buildings (EMIB) University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium), Bart Craeye (0000-0003-4628-8057, Energy and Materials in Infrastructure and Buildings (EMIB) University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium), Matthias Buyle (0000-0002-7758-7378, Energy and Materials in Infrastructure and Buildings (EMIB) University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 29 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 1105-1120 |
| Publication date | 2025-08-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Industrial Ecology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1088-1980 • E-ISSN: 1530-9290 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1111/jiec.70007 |
| OpenAlex | W4410237636 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 18 |
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the cement industry's future trends while ensuring scenario consistency on a global and economy‐wide scale. However, IAMs often have a low technological resolution, omitting a wide range of abatement options currently under development for the cement industry, only focusing on potential improvements to energy efficiency of the kiln and the adoption of a single, often unspecified, carbon capture and storage technology. This study investigates how the inclusion of these technologies would impact the cement producers' investment decisions and contribute to emission reductions. An econometric model that is soft‐linked with an IAM is used to integrate the abatement options in the scenarios while ensuring consistency with the underlying assumptions is maintained. For clinker production, this study evaluates full and partial carbon capture technologies, as well as novel heating options, applicable to new kilns or as retrofits. For cement production, the study determined investments in limestone calcined clay cement, a novel ternary cement blend. The model is applied to the EU, United States, and Canada for the SSP2‐baseline and RCP2.6 and RCP1.9 scenarios. Results indicate that investors are likely to invest in a wide range of the omitted abatement options. Key factors influencing investment decisions are energy prices, carbon tax, and alternative fuel supply. Finally, a prospective consequential life cycle assessment was conducted to determine the environmental impact of these investment strategies. The impact assessment showed substantial reductions in global warming potential across all scenarios, with reductions of up to sevenfold the original value. This article met the requirements for a gold‐gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges
Business · Cement · Cement kiln · Climate change · Economics · Environmental economics · Environmental resource management · Industrial ecology · Investment Decisions · Kiln · Life-cycle assessment · Natural resource economics · Scenario analysis · Sustainability · Waste management · Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies · Computer Science · Concrete and Cement Materials Research · Engineering · Environmental Impact and Sustainability · Environmental Science
The representative concentration pathways
An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias
When the Background Matters
A striking growth of CO 2 emissions from the global cement industry driven by new facilities in emerging countries
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
| Highly cited | No |
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