Detecting “real” population changes with American Community Survey data
The implicit assumption of treating between-year differences as “trends”
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19482011 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Carlos Siordia (University of Pittsburgh, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 4 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 494 |
| Publication date | 2014-01-31 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Sociological Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1948-5468 • E-ISSN: 1948-5468 |
| Publisher | Macrothink Institute, Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.5296/jsr.v4i2.4883 |
| OpenAlex | W1506054941 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 11 |
BACKGROUND: The American Community Survey (ACS) in the United States (US) collects detailed demographic information on the US population. Pressures to use year-to-year population estimates to analyze “trends” (i.e., between-year differences on the characteristics of interest) have motivated the need to explore how single- or multi-year estimates can be used to investigate changes in US population over time. OBJECTIVE: The specific aim of this manuscript is to provide empirical evidence that between-year differences in population characteristics have difference levels of uncertainty around point-estimates. METHODS: Six ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) single year files from 2005 through 2010 are used to empirically show the heterogeneity of uncertainty in “between-year differences” on level of education, for a birth cohort born between 1960 and 1970 of non-Latino-whites and Mexican Latinos/as. RESULTS: The data show the precision of the education estimate decreases as the specificity of the population increases. For example, Mexican’s 99% confidence intervals have wider and more time-varying bandwidths than non-Latino-whites. CONCLUSIONS: Inferring meaningful population change requires the challengeable assumption that between-year differences are not the product of data artifacts. Harvesting reputable ACS data demands further research before between-year differences can be treated as “real change.”
American Community Survey · Census · Confidence interval · Econometrics · Geography · Percentage point · Point estimation · Population · Sociology · Statistics · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Demography · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics · Mathematics · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
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| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,42 |
| Citation span | 2014 - 2022 (9) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |