From Bandwagoning to Hedging

Although much has been written on Vietnam’s China policy, few studies provide a holistic account of how and why it has evolved since the end of the Cold War. Drawing on a two-level neoclassical realism framework, this paper offers a comprehensive analysis of Vietnam’s China policy from 1990 to 2024. It finds that Vietnam’s policy evolved from bandwagoning toward China to heavy hedging, a trajectory shaped by the interaction of systemic factors and domestic political dynamics. By conceptualizing hedging, this research provides a clear and operational distinction between light and heavy hedging and derives Vietnam’s hedging behavior accordingly. Furthermore, by introducing factional politics as an intervening variable, this research challenges the conventional perception of the Vietnamese Communist Party as a unitary actor. Instead, the Politburo, Vietnam’s highest decision-making body, functions as a coalition of factional representatives, with the continual convergence and divergence of interests among competing political factions directly shaping the country’s China policy. This research highlights the need for future research to consider the influence of intra-party factional politics on foreign policy. By analyzing the evolution of Vietnam's China policy through the lens of factional politics as an intervening variable in neoclassical realism, this study enriches the theory and provides a new operational perspective for the study of small-state foreign policies

Epistemology · Humanities · Education Pedagogy and Practices · Philosophy · Psychology · Rural and Ethnic Education · Science and Education Research