A Socio-Environmental Dynamic Model for Assessing Urban Heat Island Influence on Particulate Matter Concentrations

Evidence from a High-Altitude Latin American Megacity

Bibliographic Data

ID19489228
AuthorsWilliam Camilo Enciso-Díaz (0009-0009-3993-1754, District University of Bogotá), Carlos Alfonso Zafra Mejía (0000-0002-4061-4897), Carlos Alfonso Zafra-Mejía (District University of Bogotá, corresponding author), Amed Bonilla Pérez (0000-0002-8961-7140, District University of Bogotá)
Year2026
Volume10
Issue5
Pages253
Publication date2026-05-06
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueUrban Science (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2413-8851 • E-ISSN: 2413-8851
PublisherMDPI AG (PUBLISHER • IT)
DOI10.3390/urbansci10050253
OpenAlexW7160377029
LanguageEN
References cited67

Urban growth and climate change intensify urban heat islands (UHIs), altering atmospheric stability and promoting the accumulation of particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) and particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), particularly in high-altitude megacities. However, there remains a scarcity of integrated dynamic models capable of representing these interactions at the intra-urban scale. This study develops a socio-environmental dynamic model to evaluate the influence of UHIs on PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations across localities of a high-altitude Latin American megacity (Bogotá, Colombia). A dynamic simulation model was developed in Vensim®, integrating temperature, PM10, PM2.5, and citizen perception data. Statistical and spatial analyses were conducted to represent intra-urban thermo-atmospheric interactions. The results show that the model captures the influence of UHIs on PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations. Higher PM concentrations are simulated in localities with high imperviousness (PM10: 33.4–50.4 μg/m3; PM2.5: 21.5–25.1 μg/m3) and lower PM concentrations in areas with greater vegetation cover. Sensitivity analysis of the dynamic model reveals nonlinear amplifications of up to 15–20 μg/m3 in PM10 and 8–10 μg/m3 in PM2.5 associated with small thermal variations (1–2 °C). Under scenarios with significant UHI intensity, increases reach 4–6 μg/m3 in PM10 and 3–4 μg/m3 in PM2.5. These findings confirm that UHIs act as amplifiers of pollution and that urban thermal interventions could reduce PM concentrations by up to 10–20

Air pollution · Climate change · Climate model · Latin Americans · Megacity · Particulates · Urban heat island · Urbanization · Geothermal Energy Systems and Applications · Smart Materials for Construction · Urban Heat Island Mitigation

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