Sustainability and the measurement of future paths in genuine savings

Case studies

Bibliographic Data

ID19500577
AuthorsKoji Tokimatsu (0000-0003-0638-6349, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, corresponding author), Rieko Yasuoka (System Research Center Co., Ltd., KY Bldg., 3-16-7, Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0001, Japan), Masahiro Nishio (0009-0006-5518-8858, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), Kazuhiro Ueta (The Field of Economics and Management, Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan)
Year2013
Volume20
Issue6
Pages520-531
Publication date2013-12-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1350-4509 • E-ISSN: 1745-2627
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/13504509.2013.850753
OpenAlexW2075998384
LanguageEN
References cited61

This paper extrapolates future paths of genuine savings (GS) by using our integrated assessment model. The results with the base case (BC) indicate that both GS without population change (GS) and GS with population change (GSn) are almost positive in OECD countries in the twenty-first century (satisfying the necessary but insufficient condition for sustainability); those numbers are projected to be negative in 2100. Asia (ASIA), the Middle East and Africa (MEAF), the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (FSEE), and the world show upward trends for both values, showing negative signs in 2010 and positive signs after 2050 (in ASIA, MEAF, and the world) and in 2100 (in FSEE). The values in Latin America (LAMR) remain negative throughout. We examine additional following three cases: demand reduction (DR), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction (CR), and population reduction (PR). The GSn results compared to the BC indicate that (1) GSn in DR is similar to that of BC, (2) GSn in PR is slightly higher than that of BC, and (3) GSn in CR is unexpectedly lower than that of BC. This GSn reduction in the CR case derives from the fact that the term for calculating resource depletion (especially resource rent, which equals the difference between price and cost) in GS and GSn increased, leading to a greater term being subtracted from gross savings. The resource price increases with the marginal price of natural gas, given the energy-source shift in reducing CO2 emissions, from cheap coal to expensive natural gas

Agricultural economics · Coal · Economics · European union · Geography · Greenhouse gas · International economics · Latin Americans · Natural resource · Natural resource economics · Political science · Population · Population growth · Resource depletion · Sustainability · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Demography · Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy · Ecology

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