Afghanistan

T he future is a combination of what "will be" and what "can be."What "will be" is brought about by factors and events outside the control and influence of strategic leaders.For instance, natural disasters and even many social trends are immune to external controls and management.Strategic leaders, however, have the ability to generate positive future outcomes by influencing what "can be."Perhaps no single country exercises more influence over the factors that sway what "can be" than the actions of the United States.Its preeminent influence extends across every global domain (economic, social, political, military, and cultural), and into virtually every developed country of the world.As the sole superpower, its major foreign and domestic policy decisions affect the world.However, the world order consists of a complex, adaptive, and open system that complicates and often obviates US strategies designed to achieve positive outcomes.Cause-and-effect estimates of foreign policy activities fuel many unpredictable responses with second-and third-order effects that can literally overwhelm the anticipated first-order response.This is further complicated by time delays in reactions, counterreactions, and counter-counterreactions, that may camouflage or obscure the long-term negative consequences of an apparent short-term positive response to an implemented strategy.This is especially true during periods of armed conflict where uncertainty, volatility, and ambiguity are dramatically increased, and fear and friction obscure even transparent policy intentions.The development and analysis of alternative future scenarios is one way of providing a means for identifying and examining numerous factors relevant in formulating or modifying effective goals and strategies.This article examines the context of the current conflict in Afghanistan, assesses the interests and activities of major stakeholders in a regional and global context, and advances alternative scenarios for the future.These scenarios serve to highlight possible outcomes and the governing factors currently impacting the US Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak)

Economics · Financial economics · Futures contract · Political economy · Political science · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Economic Sanctions and International Relations · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East

• Article Index, Vol. XLI, 2011

  Parameters Editors•The US Army War College Quarterly…•2011

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• Defining Success in Afghanistan

  Elie D Krakowski•The Washington Quarterly•1985

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• Afghanistan

  William Maley, Ralph H Magnus et al.•Pacific Affairs•2000

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