Does China Threaten Asia-Pacific Regional Stability

Bibliographic Data

ID20139715
AuthorsKarl Eikenberry (corresponding author), Karl W Eikenberry
Year1995
Volume25
Issue1
Publication date1995-07-04
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe US Army War College Quarterly Parameters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0031-1723 • E-ISSN: 0031-1723
PublisherUnited States Army War College Press (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.55540/0031-1723.1740
OpenAlexW3048088032
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited4

Nowhere has the collapse of Soviet power had greater consequences for security issues than in the Asia-Pacific region.[1] The Cold War witnessed two very different US-led approaches to countering the USSR.In Europe, America was able to forge an enduring collective alliance among nations that shared a commitment to Western liberal political values and open trade regimes.In Asia, however, the potential partners of the United States were divided by historical animosities, dissimilar developmental strategies, incompatible security interests, and fundamentally different philosophies of governing.Consequently, the United States implemented its policy of containment in the western Pacific through a series of bilateral and limited multilateral security treaties and pacts.[2] Thus, even with an abrupt end to the Cold War, we find NATO, although under stress, still cohesive.In East Asia, on the other hand, the implosion of the Soviet Union removed the stimulus that linked the defense concerns of the key players and dampened traditional rivalries.It should surprise no one that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is at the center of the post-Cold War security calculations of all East Asia regional actors.China, which has the largest population of any nation, dominates the Asian landmass with an area slightly greater than that of the United States.[3]Chinese family-oriented Confucian culture, which places high premiums on education and hard work, provides a strong foundation upon which PRC modernization efforts are rapidly proceeding.[4]China's growing economy, by some calculations, is now surpassed in size only by that of the United States and Japan.[5]Additionally, the PRC maintains more soldiers under arms than any other nation.[6]At the same time, considerable caution attends most analysts' estimates of the PRC's long-term stability due to the scope of the Chinese people's political disaffection, as well as doubts about the ability of the Communist Party leadership to maintain unity after the passing of Deng Xiaoping.This conjunction of uncertainty and vast potential power has led to widely varying evaluations of the role the PRC is apt to play in the security of East Asia.A Republic of Korea National Defense College faculty member calls China's defense buildup a "disturbing factor" to Asia-Pacific security.[7]A Russian journalist notes that although his country enjoys neighborly ties with the PRC, "It should not be forgotten that [Chinese] local museums and historical maps show a good part of the Russian land as having been taken from China by force."[8] The Hindustan Times warns that Sino-military developments are "causing worries," while a senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official expresses concern that the rising budget of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) could trigger "a vicious circle in which Asian countries would strangle themselves in a contest of military might."[9] In contrast, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahatir counsels the countries of the region to not be unduly worried by Chinese defense spending, and PRC Defense Minister Chi Haotian has decried the "China threat theory" as "ridiculous tales of the Arabian nights."[10] This broad range of views poses a difficult question: Is China a threat to the peace of the Asia-Pacific region through the first decade of the next century?An understanding of the Chinese expression for "threat" (weixie) helps inform this study.The word consists of two characters: wei is defined as "strength" or "power"; xie implies "to force" or "to coerce."[11] The root meanings remind us that the concept of "a threat" entails an awareness of both capabilities and intentions.This examination of the PRC's likely effect on the stability of East Asia begins with a discussion of China's capabilities, primarily focusing on its sources of military power.This is followed with a much more problematic inquiry into Beijing's intentions.Synthesis of the two dimensions of weixie suggests some inferences about the nature of the "China threat" to Asia-Pacific stability and leads to implications for the foreign policy and military strategy of the United States

Asia pacific · China · Development economics · Economics · Geography · International trade · Political science · Global trade and economics · Law

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