Strategic Warning in the Gray Zone
The Detect and Understand Framework
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 20184957 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Riley McCabe, R Michael McCabe (corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 39 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 212-243 |
| Publication date | 2026-01-02 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0885-0607 • E-ISSN: 1521-0561 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/08850607.2024.2446015 |
| OpenAlex | W4408939700 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
Efforts to conduct warning analysis of behavior below the threshold of conventional war—an area referred to as the “gray zone”—can be divided into two inextricably connected functions: identifying ongoing and emergent threats (“detect”) and contextualizing them within a broader understanding of an actor’s strategy, capabilities, and intentions (“understand”). Efforts to detect and understand are complicated by four fundamental challenges: weak signals, unfamiliar signals, attribution, and aggregation. Applying the “detect and understand” framework and its associated challenges to a dataset of 77 specific Chinese gray zone tactics illuminates how different activities challenge intelligence officers. The outcomes of this empirical analysis contribute to a series of recommendations for modernizing the capabilities of governments, particularly the United States and its allies and partners, to conduct intelligence analysis and deliver timely and accurate warning of modern gray zone threats
Business · Computer security · Political science · Computer Science · Intelligence, Security, War Strategy · Medicine · Nuclear Issues and Defense
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |