Kentucky property insurance surtax revenue
A comparison of alternative forecasting models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 20201334 |
|---|---|
| Authors | James E Payne (0000-0002-0594-9405, Illinois State University), Ken Schwendeman |
| Year | 2003 |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 339-353 |
| Publication date | 2003-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Public Budgeting Accounting & Financial Management (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1096-3367 • E-ISSN: 1945-1814 |
| Publisher | Emerald (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1108/jpbafm-15-03-2003-b002 |
| OpenAlex | W2773027947 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 13 |
Given the absence of a formal forecasting model of property insurance surtax revenue for the state of Kentucky, this paper presents the insample and out-of-sample forecasts of four models: Holt linear trend algorithm, autoregressive model, linear trend/autoregressive model, and economic activity model based on annual fiscal year data from 1984 to 2001. The Holt linear trend algorithm and the linear trend/autoregressive model were reasonably close in their respective forecasting performance for both the in-sample and out-ofsample forecast horizons. However, the linear trend/autoregressive model exhibited some evidence of instability for the period 1992 to 1994. With respect to the out-of-sample forecasts, the Holt linear trend algorithm provided a better fit to the actual surtax data. Moreover, as time passes and additional data on the surtax becomes available, the models presented can easily be updated and reevaluated
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| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |