Refining the use of Monte Carlo techniques for risk analysis in project planning
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 20303992 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Kelvin Balcombe (0000-0001-7224-9233, University of London), K G Balcombe, Laurence Smith (0000-0002-9898-9288, University of London), L E D Smith |
| Year | 1999 |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 113-135 |
| Publication date | 1999-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Development Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0388 • E-ISSN: 1743-9140 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00220389908422623 |
| OpenAlex | W2055472619 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 15 |
Monte Carlo approaches to risk analysis in project appraisal are re‐examined. Limitations with conventional methods are identified, and refinements suggested that deal with increasing uncertainty about variables throughout the project life, along with correlations and cycles among variables. These are illustrated with an example. Emphasis is placed on a practical approach that minimises demands on the appraiser's prior knowledge. Modelling the objective function of an investment appraisal autoregressively enables complete distributional mapping of project outcome, given specification by the appraiser of ‘likely bounds’ for the value of key parameters in the first and last periods of the project life plus an approximate correlation matrix
Business · Econometrics · Economics · Key (lock) · Management science · Mathematical economics · Monte Carlo method · Net present value · Operations research · Outcome (game theory) · Production (economics) · Project appraisal · Risk analysis (engineering) · Statistics · Capital Investment and Risk Analysis · Computer Science · Construction Project Management and Performance · Engineering · Mathematics
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,08 |
| Citation span | 2014 - 2014 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |