Tasmania January to June 2025

The first half of 2025 in Tasmanian politics will be remembered largely for the stark, generation-defining divergence in the political fortunes of state and federal Labor. At the 3 May federal election, Labor swept four out of five Tasmanian electorates (independent Andrew Wilkie won Clark for the sixth time), with a 9% state-wide swing delivering its highest two-party preferred vote in Tasmania since at least 1958 (Green, antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-tasmanian-federal-election-result/, 11 June 2025). Within just weeks of this historic result, Tasmanian Labor was staggering through an unpopular winter election campaign brought about by a series of strategic blunders kicked off by the party tabling a motion of no confidence in Premier Jeremy Rockliff. The minority Liberal Government also experienced a challenging 6 months, culminating in the no-confidence motion. Most notably, the state's financial position continued to rapidly deteriorate, with dire predictions of burgeoning debt and deficit laid out in the February Revised Estimates report and the May budget. The Government's apparent failure to come to grips with the scale of the crisis in the budget was cited by Labor and the crossbench as the main motivation for the no-confidence motion. Against this worrying fiscal backdrop, several other long-running political controversies—such as the Spirit of Tasmania fiasco, the Macquarie Point stadium proposal, and the Marinus Link interconnector continued to develop. Several new noteworthy issues and events rose to prominence during this period too, including a damning report on the wisdom of public funding for greyhound racing by leading economist Saul Eslake and the retirement of the long-standing chief justice of the Tasmanian Supreme Court. National polling data in the months leading up to the 2025 election suggested a very tight race and the strong possibility of a hung Parliament. Tasmania's importance to both parties was confirmed by high-profile policy announcements targeting key Tasmanian seats, including special legislation to protect salmon farming, increased funding for the Tasmanian Freight Equalisation Scheme, and a proposed $100 million upgrade for the Bass Highway. In most cases, election commitments made by either of the major parties were matched by the other within days. The Labor and Liberal campaign strategies started quite differently across Tasmania. Labor focused on promoting its major national-level healthcare, housing, and childcare policies, then later shifted to more specific announcements such as committing $24 million to guarantee the continued operation of the Boyer Paper Mill (ABC Radio Hobart, 15 April 2025), an important employer and regional symbol of economic activity in Lyons. The Liberal Party campaign was initially defined by many community-level funding promises and Tasmania-specific infrastructure support. This shifted after the announcement of the Coalition's plan to halve the fuel excise (ABC, 26 March 2025), with Tasmanian Liberal candidates lining up behind this and other national policy pronouncements on housing. For the Greens, the goal was to build on their 2022 vote share and, ambitiously, to turn one Senate seat into two (Conversation, 17 April 2025). They campaigned on issues—mainly salmon farming and native forest logging—where agreement between the Labor and Liberal parties left space for a dissenting voice. Notably, their campaign in Franklin was derailed by their candidate, 19-year-old Owen Fitzgerald, being forced to withdraw after it emerged that he unknowingly held New Zealand citizenship (ABC, 16 April 2025). There was some ensuing controversy over the fact that the party's “how to vote” cards still instructed voters to give their number 1 vote to Fitzgerald. According to the Greens, this was to make sure that voters completed their ballot correctly. The Liberal Party argued it was a ploy to win public funding, which is allocated according to the number of first preference votes that a party receives (ABC, 21 April 2025). With three key marginal seats in play, two of which were held by retiring candidates, Tasmania looked set to be a crucial battleground (Australian, 10 July 2025). As election day neared, however, the big question shifted from whether Labor could hold on in minority to just how thumping its victory would be. Nationally and in Tasmania, the answer was emphatic. Labor managed a historic 63.3% two-party preferred vote in Tasmania—its highest share in the modern era by some margin (Green, antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-tasmanian-federal-election-result/, 11 June 2025). Two Liberal-held seats were claimed comfortably by Labor; only independent Andrew Wilkie in Clark (one of the safest seats in the country) managed to weather the storm with a margin of just over 20% (ABC, 4 May 2025). Notably, Labor's four successful candidates were all women. Former state Labor leader Rebecca White—who resigned from the Tasmanian Parliament in February and was replaced on countback by Casey Farrell—replaced retiring Brian Mitchell in Lyons, gaining a 10.7% swing (ABC, 4 May 2025). This was a somewhat controversial move, with the Liberal Party arguing that Mitchell had been forced to make way for White (ABC, 29 October 2024), who is seen by Federal Labor leadership as an important talent for the future. In Bass, formerly one of the most marginal seats in the country, first-time candidate Jess Teesdale unseated Bridget Archer by more than 11,000 votes with a 9.4% swing (ABC, 4 May 2025). Former Senator Anne Urquhart's successful tilt for the lower house seat of Braddon was even more remarkable, securing the previously safe Liberal seat with a 15.2% swing (ABC, 4 May 2025). In Franklin, incumbent Julie Collins comfortably defeated Peter George—an independent anti-salmon farming candidate—despite her margin being cut in half (ABC, 4 May 2025). A range of factors contributed to Labor's success in Tasmania. Astute candidate selection played a role—in particular, White and Urquhart were well-known in their communities. Then-Opposition Leader Peter Dutton proved to be an electoral liability for the Liberal Party, particularly in Bass: Labor's messaging that “a vote for Archer is a vote for Dutton” successfully neutralised the incumbent's personal popularity and reputation for standing up to her own party (Conversation, 4 May 2025). It is also likely that the ongoing travails of the state Liberal Government played a part. Although state politics is not usually considered to have a large impact on federal elections, issues such as the stadium and ferries were high profile—and long running—enough to make a difference. On 24 May, elections were held for three of Tasmania's Legislative Council seats: Montgomery, Nelson, and Pembroke. The main effect of these elections was to increase the number of independents in the Legislative Council to eight at the expense of the Liberals, who were reduced from four seats to three. This may prove important for the Government's ability to pass future legislation on controversial topics such as the stadium. Montgomery, which covers Ulverstone, Penguin, and most of Burnie, had been held by Liberal MLC Leonie Hiscutt since 2013. On 16 May 2024, Hiscutt, the Leader of the Government in the upper house, stated that she would not be contesting the 2025 election (Tasmanian Times, 16 May 2024). On the same day, her son, Casey Hiscutt, announced that he would be running as an independent (Advocate, 16 May 2024). This led to internal Liberal Party ructions in January 2025, when Ms Hiscutt was accused of breaching Party rules by assisting her son with his campaign (ABC, 15 January 2025). No official action was taken against Ms. Hiscutt, and Mr. Hiscutt defeated Liberal candidate Stephen Parry with 61.7% of the vote after preferences (Advocate, 30 May 2025). On Hobart's Eastern Shore, Labor's Luke Edmunds held the seat of Pembroke. He won 58.2% of the vote after preferences, defeating former state Labor MP Allison Ritchie, who ran as an independent (Mercury, 25 May 2025). Edmunds first won the seat at a by-election in 2022 following the retirement of Labor's Jo Siejka. In Nelson, which covers Hobart suburbs including South Hobart, Sandy Bay, Taroona, and Kingston, independent Meg Webb easily defended her seat. Webb was elected on first preferences alone, winning 51.7% of the primary vote (Mercury, 25 May 2025). Her main rival was Liberal Marcus Vermey. In February, Treasury released its Revised Estimates Report for the 2024–2025 Budget. There was little good news to be found. The projected net operating deficit was adjusted from $793 million to $1.3 billion (an increase of 62%), while projected net debt for 2027–2028 was revised upwards from $8.6 billion to $9.6 billion. The Treasurer, Guy Barnett, blamed some of this on the Federal Government's alleged failure to provide adequate health funding (Barnett, www.premier.tas.gov.au/latest-news/2025/february/2024-25-revised-estimates-report-released, 10 February 2025). However, Barnett stood by his promise to deliver a surplus in 2029–2030—although it was not clear how this would be achieved because it was beyond the forward estimates period. On 29 May, the Government handed down its 2025–2026 state budget—the first for Barnett, who replaced Michael Ferguson as Treasurer in October 2024. Key allocations included $3.5 billion for health services, $2.4 billion for education, and $1.7 billion for infrastructure (with a projected total of $3.5 billion over 4 years) (ABC, 29 May 2025). Additionally, $550 million was earmarked for cost-of-living relief, including energy-bill assistance, discounted bus fares, and food-relief programmes (Mandarin, 29 May 2025). Despite proposed future cuts to the public service, net debt was projected to more than double over the forward estimates from $5.3 billion in 2024–2025 to $10.8 billion by June 2029 (ABC, 29 May 2025). The budget confirmed beyond any doubt the profound fiscal challenges Tasmania faces. The budget projected a net operating deficit of just over $1 billion, with total spending of $10.5 billion and revenue of $9.5 billion. Over the forward estimates, the state was projected to incur net operating deficits totalling $5.3 billion—the worst projected cash balances as a share of GSP of any state or territory in the country (Eslake, www.sauleslake.info/2025-26-tasmanian-budget-puts-the-main-task-off-to-another-day/, 28 May 2025). The state's public services and fiscal outlook had become so dire that the former dean of the University of Tasmania Law School later earnestly pondered the constitutionality of a federal takeover (Mandarin, 11 July 2025). The sources of Tasmania's fiscal woes are deep and serious. With operating expenditure in the general Government sector surging to record levels and no meaningful effort to raise any new revenue, Tasmania's total non-financial public sector liabilities are now the worst in the country as a share of GSP. The state's total non-financial sector cash balance over the forward estimates is likewise significantly worse than in any other state or territory as a share of GSP (Eslake, www.sauleslake.info/2025-26-tasmanian-budget-puts-the-main-task-off-to-another-day/, 28 May 2025). On 3 June, just days after the Treasurer's budget speech, Labor opposition leader Dean Winter tabled an unusual motion of no-confidence—not in the Government, but in Premier Jeremy Rockliff himself. Winter stated that he would not actually move the motion until he had enough support from the crossbench to guarantee that it would pass (ABC, 3 June 2025). The motion focused on the Government's alleged poor financial management, the ongoing Spirit of Tasmania ferry fiasco, and a Government plan to potentially privatise some state-owned businesses. Within hours, three of the six independent cross-bench MPs had said they would support the motion, and the following morning so did the Greens (Pulse Tasmania, 4 June 2025). Two days of fractious parliamentary debate ensued before the motion was eventually passed thanks to a tiebreaking vote from the Speaker, Labor's Michelle O'Byrne. Immediately after the vote, the Premier visited the Lieutenant-Governor—the Governor herself was on holiday at the time—to request that parliament be recalled for a single day on 10 June. This allowed parliament to pass an emergency supply bill that ensured public servants continued to be paid despite the delay in the budget process (ABC, 10 June 2025). On the evening of 10 June, Rockliff visited the Governor and requested an early election. The Governor did not agree immediately: the following day, she asked Winter whether he was able to command the confidence of Parliament. However, Winter ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern in minority (Guardian, 11 June 2025), and so the Governor was left with no option but to call an election on 19 July—just 16 months after the last poll. Labor had hoped that after the no-confidence motion passed, either Rockliff would step aside (Pulse Tasmania, 10 June 2025) or the conservative-leaning Liberal cabinet would replace their moderate leader. This would have left the Liberal Party with a much less popular leader. Political insiders believe that the conservative faction came very close to securing the numbers to replace Rockliff, but the Governor's decision on 11 June to call the election came just in time to save his leadership. This left Labor facing off against a popular premier—despite the well-documented challenges his Government faced—and saddled with the blame for an early election in the middle of winter (ABC, 12 June 2025). The short campaign was an odd combination of acrimonious and muted. Both Labor and the Liberals campaigned hard on health policy: Labor pledged to open 10 new bulk-billing “TassieDoc” GP clinics and increase support for midwifery training (ABC, 9 July 2025); the Liberals promised five new bulk-billing GP clinics and focused on expanding health services, including new breast screening clinics, urgent care centres, and mental health initiatives (Mercury, 16 June 2025). Other key issues were the controversial Macquarie Point stadium proposal, the increasing costs of the Marinus Link interconnector project, economic management and the budget, and housing affordability. However, the compressed timeline and dire fiscal situation meant that both major parties largely refrained from making major new funding commitments (ABC, 18 July 2025). The Greens' campaign focused on the “mess” made by the major parties (Tasmanian Greens, greens.org.au/magazine/snap-election-tasmania-back-polls, 26 June 2025). Their four main policy pillars were stopping the stadium, investing in health and housing, protecting the environment, and stopping privatisation. A major flashpoint was the Liberals' commitment to establish a new state-owned insurance company, TasInsure (ABC, 2 July 2025). This received support from the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and some sections of the community, but was heavily critiqued by most experts. Then, shortly after the announcement, former Labor Premier Paul Lennon said that he had registered the business name “TasInsure” and demanded that the Liberals stop using it (Australian, 10 July 2025). This led to a prolonged and unedifying debate about which side had been playing “political games” during the election. There were some notable candidacies. Several former federal parliamentarians and candidates ran, including some that had lost their seats at the May federal election. These included Bridget Archer (Liberal, Bass), Gavin Pearce (Liberal, Braddon), Brian Mitchell (Labor, Lyons), Peter George (independent, Franklin), and Vanessa Bleyer (Greens, Braddon). The Nationals also ran several candidates—following the latest in a series of Tasmanian “reboots”—including former Jaquie Lambie Network MP Andrew Jenner, who was cut adrift when Senator Lambie announced that she would no longer be running candidates in state elections (ABC, 13 June 2025). Finally, Michelle O'Byrne, the longest-serving Tasmanian Labor MP, announced her retirement after 19 years representing Bass (ABC, 10 June 2025), leaving Labor in the unfortunate position of having no sitting MPs with experience in government. Against this backdrop, several longstanding Tasmanian political conflicts have continued to cause headaches for the Government. The Government's terse official response thanked Gruen for his work and stated it would be pushing on with the project regardless. Over the coming months, the Government pivoted to attacking Gruen and questioning the report's credibility after it emerged that he had met with a community group opposed to the project before he had been appointed to conduct the review (Mercury, 10 April 2025). In April, the Government announced that it would abandon the Projects of State Significance (PoSS) process through which the stadium proposal was being assessed and instead progress the development via “enabling legislation” in Parliament (ABC, 13 April 2025). This was despite polls showing that a majority of did not support the stadium in its proposed (ABC, 25 February 25 June 2025). The process is an for large and by the to be of importance to the state of a be by Parliament. The long-running of the Spirit of Tasmania also a in the Government's In 2024, one of the new ferries at the of in a to Tasmanian of some a of its new in (ABC, 2 2025). the first months of 2025, the Government several to with ferry that would the and some of the costs with the However, of these was and the in much to the of (Guardian, 9 June 2025). At the of June, was a by the and over and at the Hobart (Mercury, 26 June 2025). This action from the the Tasmanian Government to the over the same issues in (Mercury, 2025). In to the ongoing issues business and greyhound racing as important political The for Hobart's was completed and a of the state from the Tasmanian Supreme Court. In as a response to budget the Government the of state-owned and including and the The proposal was met with public with community and opposition parties that would and state (ABC, 4 March 2025). The debate was by the of a report by economist Saul by the Government, which the state's fiscal but argued that the from would not Tasmania's budget (Eslake, April 2025). with community and political in a hung the Government ruled out in June, arguing instead that it would on and June 2025). as of the Supreme of Tasmania in 2024, in with the Supreme which retirement at He had on the Supreme since June and was to the of in April 2013. over many high-profile during his long on the more so than the of (ABC, 29 October his a sitting was held on 29 in Hobart, by and community of Tasmania, 18 2024). as is who the in January some controversy in the Tasmanian because he had not previously been a and because he was of Tasmania's first and longest-serving of the Supreme (ABC, 12 2024). A report on the of greyhound racing in Tasmania by Saul Eslake public controversy in The of in Tasmania (Eslake, May 2025), was by a of 12 and community It that over the 15 Tasmania allocated million of public funding to the with funding for Despite this financial assistance, the is on with race a in over 3 and increasing public opposition after a of Eslake that the economic importance of the is just of GSP and for in funding the just four a race in call for the Government to good after when the funding was by the after the 2025 state election, it announced an to public funding for the in 2029 (ABC, 9 2025). In June, and Jeremy Rockliff the new which the suburbs of Hobart to the Highway. This million project, in 2022 via the Projects of State Significance is the single infrastructure project in the state's 1 June 2025). in by a which more than included the of up to deep and to (Tasmanian Government, 2025). The completed two in both a for and and for not to this as no were or during the

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