From swing producer to swing state
Saudi hedging strategy and the pursuit of strategic autonomy in a multipolar era
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21059611 |
|---|---|
| Authors | So Yeon Ahn (0000-0002-2885-0344, Seoul National University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Pages | 1-19 |
| Publication date | 2026-06-24 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Third World Quarterly (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0143-6597 • E-ISSN: 1360-2241 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/01436597.2026.2683208 |
| OpenAlex | W7165760812 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 41 |
This study analyses Saudi Arabia’s evolving foreign policy amid intensifying US–China competition and growing systemic uncertainty. Historically, Saudi Arabia’s influence derived from its role in stabilising global oil markets and its close alignment with the United States. Today, however, the energy transition, the US shale revolution and intensifying US–China rivalry have collectively reshaped the strategic landscape, creating new pressures and opportunities for Riyadh. The study argues that Saudi Arabia’s contemporary strategy is best understood as institutionalised strategic hedging: retaining core security ties with the United States while expanding economic, technological and selective security cooperation with China and other emerging partners. Drawing on hedging theory and middle-power literatures, the study highlights the interaction between external structural pressures and domestic regime-survival imperatives under Vision 2030. It demonstrates that external diversification is not a temporary adjustment but a politically consequential strategy designed to secure economic transformation, reduce vulnerability and preserve strategic autonomy. More broadly, the Saudi case illustrates how resource-rich middle powers can leverage competitive interdependence to institutionalise hedging as a durable foreign policy orientation in an increasingly fragmented global order
Autonomy · China · Competition (biology) · Disequilibrium · Diversification (marketing strategy) · Emerging markets · Leverage (statistics) · Rivalry · Vulnerability (computing) · Economic Sanctions and International Relations · Global Energy Security and Policy · Socioeconomic Development in MENA
Getting hedging right
The Belt and Road Initiative
China-Saudi Arabia Relations Through the ‘1 + 2+3’ Cooperation Pattern
The US-China Rivalry in the Middle East
Saudi Arabia and the Iranian Nuclear Deal
The US-China Strategic Competition in the GCC Countries
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Power Struggle over ‘Muslimness’
Russia in the South China Sea
Hedging and grand strategy in Southeast Asian foreign policy
The concept of hedging and its application to Southeast Asia
The variable effectiveness of hedging strategies
Middle power hedging in the era of security/economic disconnect
Hedging in international relations
Saudi Arabia plans for its economic future
How Do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking Asean states’ alignment behavior towards China
The Foreign‐Policy Tools of Small Powers
The political economy of state-formation in the Arab Middle East
Shades of grey
Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition
International Order and Global Swing States
Abstinence or Tolerance
Soft Balancing against the United States
Squeezed or revitalised? Middle powers, the G20 and the evolution of global governance
Explaining Hedging
The Domestic Determinants of Hedging in Singapore s Foreign Policy
The Essence of Hedging
The Non-interference Principle and the BRI Grand Strategy in the GCC
Hedging in the Middle East and China‐U.S. Competition 1
The concept of a middle power in international relations
America, Oil, and War in the Middle East
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |