Underwriting a recovery through exports? Opportunities in and obstacles for South East Europe

While an export-led growth agenda for the Western Balkans may answer some pivotal questions it simultaneously raises others. Ever since the global economic recession and the financial crisis hit the region of the Western Balkans with some delay in the second half of 2008, international trade was significantly affected in the countries of the region. This contribution will seek to identify opportunities and challenges for an economic recovery in the region defined by the concept of export-led growth. Keywords: economic recoveryexport-led growthSoutheast Europeintra regional growthexport and investment disparitiesEU exports and importsthe way forward Notes aTrade figures for Western Balkan countries from Eurostat include Croatia. aTrade figures for Western Balkan countries from Eurostat include Croatia. 1. Since the replacement of the German mark by the euro in 2002, the Bosnian convertible mark uses the same fixed exchange rate to the euro that the German mark established, i.e. 1 € = 1.95583 BAM. 2. The term Western Balkans encompasses Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo. 3. See Raghuram (Citation2010). 4. I am grateful to Ms Kristina Cuculoska, MPhil candidate at St. Peter’s College in Oxford, UK for pointing out various aspects of EU trade agreements to me. 5. See the annual Progress Reports prepared by the European Commission for each individual country in the region, Brussels, 9th November 2010, SEC (2010). http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/press_corner/key-documents/reports_nov_2010_en.htm 6. However, there are noticeable outliers or contrarian developments. Regarding Montenegro, exports to CEFTA countries increased from 33% in 2008 to 46% in 2009. 7. I am grateful to Katharina Coleman from the University of British Columbia for pointing this additional element of regional and/or bilateral cooperation out to me. 8. Between 2007 and 2013 IPA assistance is making €11.6 billion available to participating countries. IPA has a trade component in its portfolio of activities. WBIF was established in December 2009 as a joint initiative of the EU Commission and partner IFIs (International Financial Institutions). It is designed to channel investments into infrastructure in the region

Business · Economics · Economy · Geography · German · International trade · Montenegro · Political science · Recession · Regional science · Global Financial Crisis and Policies

• In search of the Balkan recovery

  J Bastian•Journal of Southeast European and…•2011

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