Prioritizing risks in sustainable construction projects using a risk matrix-based Monte Carlo Simulation approach

Bibliographic Data

ID21228486
AuthorsAbroon Qazi (0000-0001-6648-3306, American University of Sharjah, corresponding author), Abdulrahim Shamayleh (0000-0002-0214-7052, American University of Sharjah), Sameh El-Sayegh (0000-0002-9127-0318, American University of Sharjah), Steven Formaneck, Steven D Formaneck (0000-0002-6962-6859, Canadian University of Dubai)
Year2021
Volume65
Pages102576
Publication date2021-02-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSustainable Cities and Society (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2210-6707 • E-ISSN: 2210-6715
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.scs.2020.102576
OpenAlexW3100923342
LanguageEN
Citations received10
References cited70

Sustainability-related risks and risk management frameworks have been introduced in the literature to help project managers identify and manage critical risks influencing project sustainability. Theoretically grounded in the framework of Monte Carlo Simulation, this paper introduces and operationalizes a new process for prioritizing sustainability-related project risks using risk matrix data. Sustainability-related construction project risks have never been assessed relative to different confidence levels across the risk matrix-based exposure zones. The application of the proposed process on construction projects completed in the United Arab Emirates reveals that the conventional risk prioritization scheme undermines the importance of tail risks (unexpected events), whereas such risks are captured in the proposed process. In contrast to the most critical risks identified using the conventional scheme such as shortage of client’s funding, insufficient or incorrect sustainable design operation, and design changes, the proposed process prioritizes risks such as poor productivity of labor and equipment in sustainable construction, unreasonable tight schedule for sustainable construction, and poor scope definition of sustainable construction. The proposed process is generalizable to prioritizing risks influencing sustainability in international construction projects and beneficial for enhancing project sustainability as there is a huge uncertainty associated with sustainability-related risks

Business · Monte Carlo method · Risk assessment · Statistics · BIM and Construction Integration · Computer Science · Construction Project Management and Performance · Engineering · Materials Science · Mathematics · Sustainable Building Design and Assessment

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