Urban form as a lever
Reducing residential natural gas dependency
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21231143 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sina Narimani Abar (0000-0002-4214-9415, TU Dortmund University, corresponding author), Martin Schulwitz (TU Dortmund University), Martin Faulstich (TU Dortmund University) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 133 |
| Pages | 106891 |
| Publication date | 2025-10-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Sustainable Cities and Society (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2210-6707 • E-ISSN: 2210-6715 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106891 |
| OpenAlex | W4415043741 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 32 |
Urban form variables explain 6% of domestic gas consumption variation. • Smart growth cuts gas use, particularly where average household size is smaller. • All Iranian metropolitan areas consist of 2940 postal-code regions are studied. • Fixed effects alone explain 41% of the dependent variable’s variation. • The explanatory power is almost doubled by conducting multi-level modeling. Despite ongoing efforts to decarbonize energy systems through electrification, natural gas remains the dominant source of residential energy, accounting for over half of the sector’s share in some countries. However, research on domestic gas consumption remains limited. This study aims to address this gap by investigating how urban form influences residential gas consumption with the broader goal of informing strategies to reduce natural gas dependence. Focusing on eight Iranian metropolitan areas, where natural gas constitutes over 80% of the residential energy use and 35% of the national urban population resides, this research covers diverse climate zones, from one of the hottest cities in the world (Ahvaz) to cities located in cold climates (Tabriz). Employing multi-level modeling to account for the nested data structure (postal-code regions within metropolitan areas), the study separately modeled annual gas consumption and heating gas demand. Findings reveal that population density and the Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI) are negatively associated with gas usage. However, the effect of population density weakens as household size increases, suggesting that compact urban development is more effective in reducing gas consumption, where household sizes are smaller. The model explains 41% of the variation in annual domestic gas consumption through fixed effects alone, with 6% of this variation attributable to urban form variables. Besides urban form variables considered in this study, the negative association between the percentage of active (non-zero) gas meters and gas consumption could be a signal to refine the housing policies in metropolitan areas
Energy consumption · Explanatory power · Gas consumption · Metropolitan area · Natural gas · Population · Population density · Building Energy and Comfort Optimization · Impact of Light on Environment and Health · Urban Heat Island Mitigation
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| Highly cited | No |
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