Where is victory most certain? The level of luck-based noise factor in Summer Olympic Games

Bibliographic Data

ID21281843
AuthorsGergely Csurilla (0000-0001-5325-9612, 1 Sport Economics and Decision-Making Research Centre, University of Physical Education, Budapest, Alkotás u. 44, H-1123, Hungary, corresponding author), András Gyimesi (0000-0002-6333-3318, University of Pecs), Erika Kendelényi-Gulyás (1 Sport Economics and Decision-Making Research Centre, University of Physical Education, Budapest, Alkotás u. 44, H-1123, Hungary), Tamás Sterbenz (1 Sport Economics and Decision-Making Research Centre, University of Physical Education, Budapest, Alkotás u. 44, H-1123, Hungary)
Year2021
Volume71
Issue3
Pages369-386
Publication date2021-09-21
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueActa Oeconomica (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0001-6373 • E-ISSN: 1588-2659
PublisherAkademiai Kiado Zrt. (PUBLISHER • HU)
DOI10.1556/032.2021.00018
OpenAlexW3204397894
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited29

We describe a statistical approach for the measurement of the newly defined luck-based noise factor in sports. It is defined as the difference between the actual outcome and the expected outcome based on the model predictions. We raise the question whether some sports exhibit a higher level of noise-factor than others, making investments in that sport riskier. Data from 14 individual sports in six Summer Olympic Games between 1996 and 2016 were included in the analysis. Market shares are predicted by the autoregressive linear and zero-inflated beta regression models with exogenous variables, where the higher Normalized Mean Squared Error indicates a higher noise-factor. Modern pentathlon, tennis and cycling showed the highest noise-factors, whereas swimming, table tennis and athletics were the least noisy. Possible reasons are discussed in the paper. Our analysis indicates that countries with suitable resources producing leading elite Olympic athletes are predicted to achieve higher success in sports with a lower noise-factor such as swimming. In contrast, investments in noisy sports, such as e.g., modern pentathlon, are associated with a higher risk

Athletes · Econometrics · Economics · Luck · Mathematical economics · Noise (video) · Outcome (game theory) · Political science · Statistics · Victory · Computer Science · Mathematics · Psychology · Sport and Mega-Event Impacts · Sports Analytics and Performance · Sports, Gender, and Society

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