How Will the Occupation End? A Real-World Exploration of Hindsight Bias and Retroactive Pessimism Concerning Antigovernment Protests in Bulgaria
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21287965 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Nikolay R Rachev (0000-0002-5654-2883, Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski", corresponding author), Mila Petrova (0000-0001-7351-6815, University of Cambridge) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 135 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 179-193 |
| Publication date | 2022-07-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The American Journal of Psychology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0002-9556 • E-ISSN: 1939-8298 |
| Publisher | University of Illinois Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.5406/19398298.135.2.05 |
| OpenAlex | W4284892847 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 32 |
We explored hindsight bias and retroactive pessimism related to the occupation of Sofia University in 2013–2014, using a memory design. We found partial evidence for hindsight bias for predictions of whether the occupation would achieve its goal (the government's resignation) but not for specific events related to the occupation, which were deemed unlikely from the start and later perceived not to have occurred. We did not find evidence for retroactive pessimism: Hindsight bias indices for the prediction of the government's resignation were not reliably associated with support for the occupation and disappointment with its outcome. We propose using a recall/reconstruct measure as a more rigorous test for retroactive pessimism, which has so far been demonstrated through reassessment
Cognitive psychology · Debiasing · Disappointment · Epistemology · Hindsight bias · Pessimism · Recall · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Mind wandering and attention · Optimism, Hope, and Well-being · Psychology · Social Psychology
I knew it would happen
Bayes factor approaches for testing interval null hypotheses.
Hindsight Bias
Hindsight is not equal to foresight
Bayesian t tests for accepting and rejecting the null hypothesis
Controlling the False Discovery Rate
Use of Retroactive Pessimism as a Method of Coping with Identity Threat
Negative affect and hindsight bias
Retroactive pessimism
Counterfactuals, Causal Attributions, and the Hindsight Bias
Hindsight
| Highly cited | No |
|---|