The Market in Smugglers
Survey Experimental Evidence on the Choice of Coyotes in Guatemala
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21308239 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Danielle Romero (0000-0002-3133-7904, The University of Texas at Austin), Mateo Villamizar-Chaparro (0000-0001-7760-1670, Universidad Católica del Uruguay, corresponding author), Erik Wibbels (0009-0007-6723-3414, University of Pennsylvania) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Publication date | 2026-07-06 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Comparative Political Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0010-4140 • E-ISSN: 1552-3829 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/00104140261466974 |
| OpenAlex | W7167484501 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 40 |
Illicit migration is big business, involving millions of migrants each year, many of whom hire human smugglers to facilitate perilous journeys. Yet little is known about this illicit market or how potential migrants choose whom to hire. Facing high costs and uncertain prospects of success, future migrants must make complex, high-stakes decisions when selecting a smuggler. In this paper, we provide descriptive evidence on the market for coyotes (human smugglers in Latin America) and experimental evidence on the factors shaping hiring preferences. Using a forced-choice conjoint experiment, we isolate the effects of referrals, reputation, reliability, safety, and price. Our evidence draws on three original sources: a panel survey of deportees from the U.S. to Guatemala, a household survey, and in-depth interviews. We find that referrals and reputations for safe, successful journeys are central, while price has little influence—helping explain why policies that raise migration costs often fail to deter irregular migration
Descriptive statistics · Empirical evidence · Latin Americans · Panel data · Panel survey · Survey data collection · Survey research · Auction Theory and Applications · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
Validating vignette and conjoint survey experiments against real-world behavior
Social Structure, Household Strategies, and the Cumulative Causation of Migration
Smuggling and Trafficking in Human Beings
Human Smuggling and Border Crossings
Migration and Financial Constraints
Critical Perspectives on Clandestine Migration Facilitation
Migration Infrastructure
The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration
Human Smuggling
El coyotaje visto desde la mirada de mujeres migrantes centroamericanas
Joining a migrant caravan
Individual Decisions to Migrate During Civil Conflict
On Narco‐coyotaje
Human Smuggling as a Transnational Service Industry
What Makes a Good Human Smuggler? The Differences between Satisfaction with and Recommendation of Coyotes on the U.S.-Mexico Border
"The Market for "Lemons
Measuring Subgroup Preferences in Conjoint Experiments
Causal Inference in Conjoint Analysis
Extortion, Civic Action, and Political Participation among Guatemalan Deportees
The "Good" Smuggler
Violencia postestructural
Coyotaje and Drugs
He used to be aPollero' the securitisation of migration and the smuggler/migrant nexus at the Mexico-Guatemala border
Coyoteuse in an era of heightened border enforcement
In the Eye of the Storm
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |