Confidence Charms
How Superstition Influences Overconfidence Bias in Han and the Qiang Ethnic Minority Chinese
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21352659 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Heng Li (0000-0002-6074-3397, Southwest University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 155 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 473-488 |
| Publication date | 2021-07-04 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Psychology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3980 • E-ISSN: 1940-1019 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00223980.2021.1902918 |
| PMID | 33983873 |
| OpenAlex | W3160712280 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 48 |
The overconfidence effect is a cognitive bias in which individuals' subjective confidence in their judgements is greater than their actual performance. Extending beyond a range of contributing factors in the emergence of the overconfidence bias, the present research examines whether superstition, an under-explored yet important factor, can influence people's perceived level of confidence. Drawing on previous findings regarding the consequences of superstitions, we propose that activating the good-luck-related superstitions can increase overconfidence in one's judgment. Specifically, Experiments 1 and 2 show that Chinese Han student and non-student participants, who were activated by different types of superstitions, displayed a higher level of overconfidence than those in the absence of superstition. Experiment 3 fully replicated the causal effect of superstition beliefs on the heightened overconfidence bias in a traditional population of Chinese Qiang people. Moreover, Experiments 1 through 3 consistently show that self-efficacy mediates the relationship between superstition and overconfidence. Taken together, these findings suggest that superstition strengthens people's belief in their own performance ability, which in turn boosts overconfidence
Cognition · Developmental psychology · Epistemology · Geography · Illusion of control · Luck · Overconfidence effect · Population · Psychiatry · Sociology · Superstition · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Demography · Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs · Philosophy · Psychology · Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment · Social Psychology
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| Citations per year | 0.67 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2023 - 2024 (2) |
| Highly cited | No |