East African Economic Development Over the Next Twenty Years

This paper is an attempt to suggest some of the more important qualitative changes which might accompany the growth of the East African economy over the next 20 years or so.' It is a birds-eye enumeration of the more important issues, features and problems which will influence the nature, pace and direction of these three economies (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda), especially their agricultural and industrial sectors, over the next several decades. A very broad brush is used. Many can concoct lists of issues and problems which influence the welfare of scores of nations such as those of East Africa. There is no need to repeat these well known facts about under-development; they include the shortage of qualified manpower, the general problem of marketing of agricultural products, the problem of diversifying and decentralizing the economy, the dearth of basic research information on agricultural and herding systems, the problem of unemployment, the problem of Africanization, the painfully slow development of in-depth transportation and communication systems, the problems associated with rapid urbanization, general health and education problems, and so on, and on. The East African region has its share of these, and often more than its share. But when one starts concerning oneself with longer run perspectives, as we are here, there is room for noticing, or hoping for, or guessing about, those qualitative changes which, by their very nature are complicated, and which may take from 10 to 30 years to make themselves felt. Some are in train already; some are for the future. Often amorphous and nebulous, we are dealing with changing values, changing institutions and processes of decision-making, changing attitudes, and the changing political and economic environment external to our region. There is

Development economics · Economic growth · Economics · Geography · Political science · African history and culture studies

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