From Crisis to War
Cyclical Systemic Risk and Bank Profitability in Ukraine
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21393022 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Alona Johner (National Bank of Ukraine Kyiv Ukraine, corresponding author), Steven Ongena (0000-0002-8381-0062, University of Zurich Zurich Switzerland) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 73 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Publication date | 2026-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Scottish Journal of Political Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0036-9292 • E-ISSN: 1467-9485 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/sjpe.70057 |
| OpenAlex | W7161018743 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 13 |
What is the link between cyclical systemic risk and bank solvency, and can we make it work for policymakers? This paper develops a framework for high‐frequency monitoring of banking system health based on the link between the degree of accumulated vulnerabilities and bank solvency. Using local projection methods with a distributional focus, we show that this link is nonlinear, with substantially stronger effects in the lower tail of the profitability distribution. Downside impacts intensify during large exogenous shocks, such as wars and epidemics. Relying on regularly available supervisory data, the framework supports timely, evidence‐based macroprudential monitoring under elevated uncertainty
Downside risk · Financial crisis · Macroprudential regulation · Profitability index · Real economy · Systemic risk · Work (physics) · Banking stability, regulation, efficiency · Credit Risk and Financial Regulations · Italy: Economic History and Contemporary Issues
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |