Geopolitical Risk and Military Spending

Reassessing Specification and Measurement

Dados Bibliográficos

ID21393028
AutoresNgoc Duc Lang (0009-0007-1929-4554, Western Sydney University Penrith New South Wales Australia), Vinh The Nguyen (0009-0008-4384-3215, Macquarie University Sydney New South Wales Australia), Nam Thanh Vu (0000-0002-9956-6658, University of Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham UK)
Ano2026
Data de publicação2026-06-23
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoScottish Journal of Political Economy (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0036-9292 • E-ISSN: 1467-9485
EditoraWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/sjpe.70074
OpenAlexW7165745934
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas15

Tran and Vo analysed English‐language‐based geopolitical risk (GPR) indices and argued that local GPR dominates global GPR in explaining military spending worldwide. We revisit this claim by addressing limitations in their empirical design and measurement. After methodological corrections, panel and country‐specific VAR estimates show no statistically significant effects of either local or global GPR on military spending, except for the U.S., possibly because the current GPR index predominantly reflects U.S.‐centric perspectives. Indeed, local‐language GPR indices for Germany, Russia, and Ukraine yield significant effects or at least reduce standard errors in VAR estimates. These findings highlight the importance of context‐specific risk measurement

Empirical research · Geopolitics · Ground-Penetrating Radar · Index (typography) · Yield (engineering) · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Global Energy Security and Policy · Market Dynamics and Volatility