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Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods

Bibliographic Data

ID21400860
AuthorsStefanie Mauksch (0000-0001-8822-4380, Leipzig University), Heiko A von der Gracht (0000-0002-7376-1236, Steinbeis University Berlin, corresponding author), Tuula Gordon (0000-0002-6427-2369, Millennium Engineering and Integration (United States)), Theodore J Gordon
Year2020
Volume154
Pages119982
Publication date2020-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueTechnological Forecasting and Social Change (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0040-1625 • E-ISSN: 1873-5509
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119982
OpenAlexW3010060375
LanguageEN
Citations received23
References cited127

Conviction · Data science · Engineering ethics · Epistemology · Field (mathematics) · Futures studies · Identification (biology) · Knowledge management · Management science · Political science · Selection (genetic algorithm) · Value (mathematics) · Viewpoints · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Delphi Technique in Research · Engineering · Law · Social Acceptance of Renewable Energy

  • The impact of the metaverse on the future business of professional football clubs – A prospective study

    Open Access•Gerrit Heidemann, Sascha L Schmidt et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2024

  • Emerging technologies and shifting consumer motives

    Open Access•Dominik Geissler, Daniel Beiderbeck et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2024

  • An Exploration of the Potential of Machine Learning Tools for Media Analysis to Support Sense-Making Processes in Foresight

    Open Access•Michela Vignoli, Jan Rörden et al.•Frontiers in Communication•2022

  • Dementia screening protocol for primary care in South America

    Open Access•Belen Custodio, Rosa Montesinos et al.•Frontiers in Public Health•2026

  • And beyond

    Diana Tolmie•Music Education Research•2020

  • What Does the Future Hold for Human Rights in Conflict-Affected Areas? A Delphi Study on MNEs’ Strategies

    Open Access•Janine Allenbacher, Matthias Fertig et al.•Journal of Business Ethics•2026

  • Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios

    Open Access•Simone Di Zio, Mario Bolzan et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2021

  • Risks and critical success factors in the internationalization of born global startups of industry 4.0

    Open Access•Fábio Lotti Oliva, Pedro Marins Freire Teberga et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2022

  • The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study

    Open Access•Nicolas Frevel, Daniel Beiderbeck et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2022

  • The impact of Covid-19 on the European football ecosystem – A Delphi-based scenario analysis

    Open Access•Daniel Beiderbeck, Nicolas Frevel et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2021

  • The future of digitally enabled circular strategies in manufacturing

    Open Access•Lena Ries, Francisco Layrisse et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2026

  • Natural language processing for participatory corporate foresight

    Open Access•Jörg M Delhaes, Ana Vieira et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2024

  • Explicating the role of emerging technologies and firm capabilities towards attainment of competitive advantage in health insurance service firms

    Open Access•Bishwajit Nayak, Som Sekhar Bhattacharyya et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2021

  • Circular plastics packaging – Prioritizing resources and capabilities along the supply chain

    Open Access•Lukas Stumpf, Josef‐Peter Schöggl et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2023

  • Value co-creation and co-destruction in service ecosystems

    Open Access•Thomas Schulz, Sina Zimmermann et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2021

  • Foresight, sensemaking, and new product development

    Open Access•Evy Sakellariou, Riccardo Vecchiato•Technological Forecasting and…•2022

  • The assessment of rural development

    Open Access•I Abreu, Francisco Javier Mesías Díaz•Journal of Rural Studies•2020

  • Imagining alternative futures for the Dutch poultry industry

    Open Access•Britt Smulders, Rianne Valkenburg et al.•Futures•2024

  • Navigating the Delphi jungle

    Open Access•Delia Mangelkramer, Marlen Niederberger et al.•Futures•2026

  • The adoption, diffusion & categorical ambiguity trifecta of social robots in e-health – Insights from healthcare professionals

    Open Access•David E Kalisz, Insaf Khelladi et al.•Futures•2021

  • Reframing talent scarcity

    Open Access•Antti Vuoriainen, Paavo Räty et al.•Futures•2026

  • Post-Covid-19 scenarios

    Open Access•Elaine Coutinho Marcial, Eduardo Rodrigues Schneider et al.•Futures•2022

  • The Voting Scheme Determines the Winner. Considering Possible Options for Designing a Delphi Study

    Open Access•Isabell Ehringfeld, Paula Steinhoff et al.•International Journal of…•2023

  • The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance

    Open Access•Aaron Kozbelt, Mark Williams et al.•Cambridge Handbook of Expertise…•2006

  • A critical review of the Delphi technique as a research methodology for nursing

    Open Access•Sinead Keeney, Felicity Hasson et al.•International Journal of Nursing…•2001

  • The Influence of Experience and Deliberate Practice on the Development of Superior Expert Performance

    Open Access•K Anders Ericsson•Cambridge Handbook of Expertise…•2006

  • The current state of scenario development

    Open Access•Peter Bishop, Andy Hines et al.•foresight•2007

  • Advice Taking in Decision Making

    Open Access•Ilan Yaniv, Eli Kleinberger•Organizational Behavior and Human…•2000

  • Competence in experts

    Open Access•James Shanteau•Organizational Behavior and Human…•1992

  • The Delphi method as a research tool

    Open Access•Chitu Okoli, Suzanne D Pawlowski•Information & Management•2004

  • Confidence in judgment

    Hillel J Einhorn, Robin M Hogarth•Psychological Review•1978

  • Consulting the oracle

    Open Access•Sinead Keeney, Felicity Hasson et al.•Journal of Advanced Nursing•2006

  • Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts

    Open Access•Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo•Management Science•1993

  • Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics

    Open Access•Gerd Gigerenzer, Wolfgang Gaissmaier et al.•Psychological Science in the…•2007

  • Advancing the State of Policy Delphi Practice

    Open Access•Rob C De Loë, Natalya Melnychuk et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2016

  • Accuracy of Physician Self-assessment Compared With Observed Measures of Competence

    David A Davis, Paul E Mazmanian et al.•JAMA•2006

  • Peripheral Vision

    Open Access•Hubert L Dreyfus, Stuart E Dreyfus•Organization Studies•2005

  • Judgment under Uncertainty

    Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman•Utility, Probability, and Human…•1975

  • The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance.

    K Anders Ericsson, Ralf Th Krampe et al.•Psychological Review•1993

  • Implicit social cognition

    Anthony G Greenwald, Mahzarin R Banaji•Psychological Review•1995

  • Scenarios

    Kees van der Heijden•Scenarios•2005

  • Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them

    Open Access•Andrea Bonaccorsi, Riccardo Apreda et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2020

  • Qualitative Research

    Matthew R Hallowell, John Gambatese et al.•Journal of Construction…•2009

  • The design of a policy Delphi

    Open Access•Murray Turoff•Technological Forecasting and…•1970

  • Delphi

    Open Access•Gene Rowe, George Wright et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•1991

  • Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment

    Open Access•Ian Belton, Alice Macdonald et al.•Technological Forecasting and…•2019

  • Enhancing rigour in the Delphi technique research

    Open Access•Felicity Hasson, Sinead Keeney•Technological Forecasting and…•2011

  • A Delphi Approach to Understanding Varying Expert Viewpoints in Sustainability Communication

    Open Access•Andrea Sutterlüty, Franziska Hesser et al.•Journal of Industrial Ecology•2017

  • A scientific enquiry into the future

    Open Access•Johannes Gabriel•European Journal of Futures…•2013

  • Design and application for a replicable foresight methodology bridging quantitative and qualitative expert data

    Open Access•Jan Erik Karlsen•European Journal of Futures…•2014

  • The development of indicators for sustainable tourism

    Open Access•Graham Miller•Tourism Management•2001

  • Institute for the future's study of the UK, 1978–1995

    Open Access•Andrew J Lipinski, Andrew Lipinski et al.•Futures•1982

  • Who is a Delphi ‘expert’? Reflections on a bioeconomy expert selection procedure from Ireland

    Open Access•Laura Devaney, Maeve Henchion•Futures•2018

  • Conditions for intuitive expertise

    Daniel Kahneman, Gary Klein•American Psychologist•2009

  • The Policy Delphi

    Open Access•Roger D Needham, Robert C De Loë•Canadian Geographies /…•1990

  • Expert Political Judgment

    Open Access•Gerald Gaus, Gerald F Gaus•Perspectives on Politics•2007

  • Expert and Exceptional Performance

    K Anders Ericsson, A Lehmann et al.•Annual Review of Psychology•1996

  • For a Sociology of Expertise

    Gil Eyal•American Journal of Sociology•2013

Unique citing works23
Citations per year3,83
Citation span2020 - 2026 (7)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 21

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