Strategic scenarios for the digitalisation of chronic disease care management

A 10-year foresight case study in Lisbon's primary healthcare setting

Bibliographic Data

ID21403972
AuthorsMariana Peyroteo (0000-0003-4976-2826, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, corresponding author), Luís Velez Lapão (0000-0003-0506-1294, Universidade Nova de Lisboa)
Year2025
Volume220
Pages124290
Publication date2025-11-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueTechnological Forecasting and Social Change (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0040-1625 • E-ISSN: 1873-5509
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124290
OpenAlexW4412683389
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited27

Background Managing chronic diseases in Primary Healthcare (PHC) settings presents persistent challenges, particularly in accessibility, communication, and care coordination. While the implementation of digital technologies remains inconsistent, these tools hold significant potential to improve healthcare efficiency and patient engagement. Objectives This study explores how digital tools can support chronic care in PHC settings in southern Lisbon. It examines enabling factors, integration barriers, and the role of policy in shaping digital transformation. Methods Using a foresight case study approach, the study analyses the long-term impact of digital health implementation by 2032. Participatory workshops and scenario planning were employed to identify strategic uncertainties and plausible future scenarios. Results Three scenarios—Digital PHC, NHS Transition, and Climate Exigency—show the effects of technology, governance shifts, and environmental change. Key enablers are interoperability, AI decision-making, and workforce training. Barriers include infrastructure gaps and low digital health literacy. Findings suggest that digitalisation improves care continuity, resource efficiency, and patient engagement. Conclusions The findings highlight the transformative potential of digital health in PHC-based chronic care, given supportive policies, infrastructure investment, and ongoing workforce training. Future research should explore implementation strategies and governance models to support scalable, equitable, and sustainable digital health adoption in PHC

Business · Economic growth · Economics · Family medicine · Futures studies · Health care · Knowledge management · Primary care · Artificial Intelligence · Chronic Disease Management Strategies · Computer Science · Medicine · Mobile Health and mHealth Applications · Nursing · Telemedicine and Telehealth Implementation

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