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Informing Large-Scale Emergent Decarceration Efforts

Validation of the Reduction in Capacity Evaluation (ReduCE)

Bibliographic Data

ID21424630
AuthorsDanielle J Rieger (0000-0001-6705-3914, Orbis Partners, corresponding author), Ralph C Serin (0000-0003-3570-5775), Shelley L Brown (0000-0002-9372-407X, Carleton University)
Year2026
Volume53
Issue4
Pages486-499
Publication date2026-04-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueCriminal Justice and Behavior (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0093-8548 • E-ISSN: 1552-3594
PublisherSAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/00938548251389465
OpenAlexW4416143426
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited23

Large-scale emergent decarceration efforts introduce challenges for time and resources that prohibit jurisdictions from employing best practices in release decisions. Best practice includes a structured professional judgment approach by paroling authorities to incorporate group-level predicted risk and individual-level assessment of current risk and suitability for release. Absent the ability to expand parole review, jurisdictions should ensure decisions are informed by risk assessment that incorporates recent behavior and potential mitigating factors to approximate parole practice. The Reduction in Capacity Evaluation (ReduCE) was created for the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation following COVID-19 to inform prison population reduction efforts wherein empirically supported structured decision-making used by the Board of Parole Hearings cannot be employed. ReduCE is automatically scored, differentiates between lower risk groups, predicts any new return ( AUC = .69) and new felony return ( AUC = .75) across gender and race, and informs risk over and above the existing static instrument

Best practice · Poison control · Population · Prison · Reduction (mathematics) · Risk assessment · Suicide prevention · Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis · Education Discipline and Inequality · Human Factors and Ergonomics · Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending

  • Optimized Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice

    Open Access•Danielle J Rieger, Ralph C Serin et al.•Behavioral Sciences & the Law•2026

  • Applied Logistic Regression

    David W Hosmer, Stanley Lemeshow•Applied logistic regression•2000

  • Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies

    Marnie E Rice, Grant T Harris•Law and Human Behavior•2005

  • Investigating the Impacts of a Global Pandemic and George Floyd’s Death on Crime and Other Features of Police Work

    Michael D White, Carlena Orosco et al.•Justice Quarterly•2023

  • Were California’s Decarceration Efforts Smart? A Quasi-Experimental Examination of Racial, Ethnic, and Gender Disparities

    Open Access•Aaron Gottlieb, Pajarita Charles et al.•Criminal Justice and Behavior•2021

  • Racist Algorithms or Systemic Problems? Risk Assessments and Racial Disparities

    Open Access•Gina M Vincent, Jodi L Viljoen•Criminal Justice and Behavior•2020

  • The Promise of Research to Advance Smart Decarceration

    Open Access•Matthew W Epperson, Amy Blank Wilson et al.•Criminal Justice and Behavior•2021

  • Decarceration Problems and Prospects

    Todd R Clear•Annual Review of Criminology•2020

  • The impact of Covid-19 on police officer activities

    Open Access•Kyler R Nielson, Yan Zhang et al.•Journal of Criminal Justice•2022

  • A Turning Point in Mass Incarceration? Local Imprisonment Trajectories and Decarceration under California's Realignment

    Open Access•Anjuli Verma•The Annals of the American…•2016

Citations per year1
Citation span2026 - 2026 (1)
Highly citedNo

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