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The HIV/Aids Epidemiological Challenges

Why is HIV Incidence Rising While Aids Incidence and Mortality are Declining in Brazil

Bibliographic Data

ID21426622
AuthorsHenrique Fernando Lopes-Araujo (0009-0000-1162-5426), Henrique Fernando Lopes‐Araujo (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, corresponding author), Maria Carolina Santos Guedes (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco), Wlisses Henrique Veloso Carvalho-Silva (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco), Rafael Lima Guimarães (0000-0003-4760-2466, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco)
Year2026
Publication date2026-06-18
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Community Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0094-5145 • E-ISSN: 1573-3610
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s10900-026-01590-x
PMID42315754
OpenAlexW7165173661
LanguageEN
References cited44

HIV/AIDS remains a public health challenge in Latin America, and Brazil has emerged as a global reference for effective epidemiological control through its comprehensive public health response. This study investigated epidemiological trends in Brazil from 2015 to 2024, including HIV and AIDS incidence, AIDS-related mortality, time from diagnosis to antiretroviral therapy initiation, CD4 + T cell counts at diagnosis, and viral suppression. We aimed to evaluate progress in HIV/AIDS management, identify persistent gaps requiring improvement, and explore potential determinants associated with AIDS incidence and mortality to inform future policy and programmatic actions. During this period, AIDS incidence and AIDS-related death rates declined, but the HIV incidence rate increased. The percentage of people living with HIV initiating treatment within 30 days after diagnosis increased from 28 to 63%, while the proportion initiating treatment more than 6 months after diagnosis decreased substantially from 35 to 10%. Viral suppression among people living with HIV and CD4 + T cell counts at diagnosis remained relatively stable. Moreover, we observed a strong negative correlation between treatment initiation within 30 days and the AIDS incidence rate (r = -0.8147; p = 0.0075), as well as a very strong negative correlation with the AIDS-related death rate (r = -0.9564; p

Antiretroviral therapy · Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) · Incidence (geometry) · Latin Americans · Mortality rate · Psychological intervention · Public health · Epidemiology · HIV Research and Treatment · HIV-related health complications and treatments · HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions

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