Demographic dynamics, urban expansion, and social inclusion in Burkina Faso's small towns (1985–2019)
A context-aware decoupling analysis
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21497950 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mansourou Cissé (0009-0000-6025-8802, University of Copenhagen, corresponding author), Malicki Zorom (0000-0002-0182-9131, International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering), Xiaoye Tong (0000-0002-9709-0633, University of Copenhagen), Cécile Tannier (0000-0003-4158-6872, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Harouna Karambiri (0000-0003-4835-1427, International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering), Stephanie Horion (0000-0001-6716-1333, University of Copenhagen) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 170 |
| Pages | 108187 |
| Publication date | 2026-11-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Land Use Policy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0264-8377 • E-ISSN: 1873-5754 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108187 |
| OpenAlex | W7166682041 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 13 |
Small towns constitute most of Africa’s urban settlements, yet their spatial dynamics remain poorly understood in relation to demographic change, land-use efficiency, and social inclusion. Existing decoupling models overlook initial land-consumption conditions, path dependence, and broader urban subsystem behavior. This study examines 98 small towns in Burkina Faso through five analyses: growth trajectory clustering, Gibrat’s law testing, land-population elasticity modeling, a benchmark-adjusted Tapio decoupling framework, and social outcome assessment. Results reveal sustained urban growth with two accelerated built-up expansion waves (1995–2000 and 2015–2019), reflecting decentralization policies, real-estate liberalization, and conflict-induced internal displacement. Four persistent growth regimes emerge, reflecting administrative status, accessibility, metropolitan influence, and local socioeconomic conditions. Population growth is largely size-independent, while the population-built-up relationship progressively converges toward proportionality (β = 0.96), indicating increasing spatial-demographic coherence. Persistent outliers highlight the influence of conflict, migration, mining activity, and geographic isolation. Against Burkina Faso’s national benchmark of 75 m2 per capita, the share of towns exhibiting inefficient land expansion increased from 40% (2005–2010) to 78% (2015–2019). Although some land-use efficiency indicators are statistically associated with poverty incidence, they explain no meaningful share of the observed variation in poverty and wealth inequality. Context-aware efficiency classes show no significant relationship with either indicator. These results suggest that compliance with land-use benchmarks does not automatically translate into social inclusion. By integrating demographic, spatial, institutional, and social dimensions, this study proposes a replicable framework for diagnosing urban expansion in data-scarce regions and highlights the need for context-sensitive, governance-aware land-use policies in rapidly urbanizing small-town systems
Decentralization · Internal migration · Metropolitan area · Population · Population growth · Poverty · Urban poverty · Urbanization · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Urban Agriculture and Sustainability · Urban and Rural Development Challenges
| Highly cited | No |
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