Rational Choice on a Hacker Forum

The Effect of Risk and Reward Cues on Target Selection for Account Hijacking

Bibliographic Data

ID2153906
AuthorsDanielle Stibbe (0000-0002-7834-495X, Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement), Stijn Ruiter (0000-0003-2872-2710, Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement), Wouter Steenbeek (0000-0002-4965-4393, Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement), Asier Moneva (0000-0002-2156-0213, Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement)
Year2025
Volume46
Issue9
Pages1-22
Publication date2025-09-02
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueDeviant Behavior (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0163-9625 • E-ISSN: 1521-0456
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/01639625.2025.2459699
OpenAlexW4407186547
LanguageEN
References cited32

This online field experiment tested how risk and reward cues in (fake) account credential ads on a hacker forum influence target selection for account hijacking. High-risk posts, warning of account monitoring, received fewer views, while high-reward posts, promising benefits, attracted more. An unexpected law enforcement operation targeting an illicit marketplace created a natural experiment, triggering increased removals of high-risk posts by forum administrators, which slowed over time. These findings suggest hacker forum users respond rationally to risk and reward cues in target selection, and forum administrators adapt their moderation efforts in response to external threats to reduce perceived risk

Computer security · Hacker · Internet privacy · Selection (genetic algorithm · Computer Science · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Cybercrime and Law Enforcement Studies · Psychology · Social Psychology · Spam and Phishing Detection · Artificial Intelligence

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