Forecasting hotel room demand amid Covid-19
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21689417 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Hanyuan Zhang (0000-0003-3031-2155, School of Economics, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo, China; Hospitality and Tourism Research Centre, School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, corresponding author), Jiangping Lu (Hospitality and Tourism Research Centre, School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 200-221 |
| Publication date | 2022-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Tourism Economics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1354-8166 • E-ISSN: 2044-0375 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/13548166211035569 |
| OpenAlex | W3193798607 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 11 |
| References cited | 29 |
The COVID-19 pandemic has hindered international travel considerably, greatly affecting the hotel industry. Hong Kong, as a well-known international tourist destination, has also been hit hard by the crisis. Recovery forecasts for hotel room demand are critical to managing this ongoing crisis. This study employs the autoregressive distributed lag error correction model to generate baseline forecasts of hotel room demand for Hong Kong followed by compound scenario analysis to optimize forecasts considering the pandemic’s impacts. The COVID-19 Travelable Index is designed to group source markets by their pandemic situations, vaccinations, policy responses, and health resilience. To capture pandemic-related uncertainty, this study presents three scenarios describing recovery patterns based on trough duration, the quarter for lifting travel restrictions, and the quarter for returning to baseline forecasts. Hotel demand forecasts geared toward each source market are analyzed, revealing strategies to help hotel businesses manage this crisis
Business · Distributed lag · Econometrics · Economics · Geography · Pandemic · Tourism · Computer Science · Consumer Retail Behavior Studies · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research
Forecasting tourism demand of tourist attractions during the Covid-19 pandemic
Recreational travel behavior and Covid-19
Modelling and forecasting European Airbnb occupancy during the pandemic
Forecasting Tourism in the EU after the Covid-19 Crisis
Tourism forecasts after Covid-19
Progress in tourism demand research
Forecast by mixed-frequency dynamic panel model
Imputation recovery tourism demand forecasting
Forecasting Chinese outbound tourism recovery
Has Covid-19 changed tourist destination choice
The Heterogeneity of Hotel Demand Curves Across Consumers and Contexts
New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting
Impacts of the World Recession and Economic Crisis on Tourism
Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships
The Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand
Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys
Impact of financial/economic crisis on demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid Covid-19
Exploring impact of climate on tourism demand
Market shares analysis
The good, the bad and the ugly on Covid-19 tourism recovery
Forecasting tourism recovery amid Covid-19
| Unique citing works | 11 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3,67 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2026 (4) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 11 |