An approach for estimating the net change in tourism demand for a destination due to Covid-19
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21689669 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Louinord Voltaire (0000-0002-4271-9393, Université du littoral côte d'opale, corresponding author), Claudio Pirrone (0000-0003-1519-7988, University of Palermo, Italy) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 31 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 714-732 |
| Publication date | 2025-06-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Tourism Economics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1354-8166 • E-ISSN: 2044-0375 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/13548166241288614 |
| OpenAlex | W4402997046 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 53 |
Mobility restrictions and fear of COVID-19 infection have led individuals to change their travel behaviours. These changes create the possibility that a destination both attracts tourists it would not have gained without the pandemic (visit-creating effect) while losing others it would have typically attracted (visit-diverting effect). We propose a methodology to estimate the net change in demand due to COVID-19. It involves jointly estimating actual demand (visits or nights completed with COVID-19) and counterfactual demand (visits or nights that would have been completed without COVID-19) within a pseudo-panel data framework. Counterfactual data is constructed by combining actual demand with gained and lost demand attributable to COVID-19, identified through survey data. Focusing on domestic tourism demand in Hauts-de-France, France, we find a slight net decline in visits (−2.2%) but no significant change in nights spent. Ignoring the visit-creating effect or attributing all cancellations to COVID-19 exaggerate the pandemic’s negative effect
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Biology · Business · Econometrics · Economics · Geography · Tourism · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research · Urban Transport and Accessibility
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| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |