Measuring tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21689691 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Han Liu (0000-0003-1868-9312, Jilin University, Changchun, China), Yongjing Wang (0000-0002-0494-5998, Jilin University, Changchun, China), Haiyan Song (0000-0001-6158-1222, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR), Ying Liu (0000-0001-5584-7805, Jilin University, Changchun, China, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 29 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 1302-1327 |
| Publication date | 2023-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Tourism Economics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1354-8166 • E-ISSN: 2044-0375 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/13548166221104291 |
| OpenAlex | W4281622758 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 59 |
Tourism demand nowcasting is generally carried out using econometric models that incorporate either macroeconomic variables or search query data as explanatory variables. Nowcasting model accuracy is normally evaluated by traditional loss functions. This study proposes a novel statistical method, the monotonicity test, to assess whether the nowcasting errors obtained from the ordinary least squares, generalised dynamic factor model and generalised dynamic factor model combined with mixed data sampling model are monotonically decreasing when new data on explanatory variables become available, based on the mixed frequency data between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2019. The results of the empirical analysis show that nowcasts generated results based on two data sources combined are superior to that based on a single data source. Compared with traditional loss functions, the monotonicity test leads to a more objective and convincing nowcasting model performance. This study is the first attempt to evaluate tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test
Econometric model · Econometrics · Economics · Geography · Monotonic function · Nowcasting · Ordinary least squares · Statistics · Computer Science · Cruise Tourism Development and Management · Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Mathematics
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| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |