Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

The high thermal and mechanical inertia of the oceans results in slow changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Changes in SSTs, in turn, can impact atmospheric circulation including water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures throughout the world. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic SST gradient variability, and the West Pacific Warm Pool are patterns of natural climate variability that tend to persist over decadal time periods. There are current efforts to produce decadal climate predictions, but there is limited understanding if this information can be used in water resources management. Understanding the current state of decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and the probability of persisting in that state may be useful information for water managers. This information could improve forecasts that aid operations and short-term planning for reservoir management, domestic and industrial water supplies, flood risk management, energy production, recreation, inland navigation, and irrigation. If conditions indicate a higher likelihood of drought, reservoir managers could reduce flood storage space and increase storage for conservation purposes. Improved forecasts for irrigation could result in greater efficiencies by shifting crops and rotational crop patterns. The potential benefits of using a forecast must be balanced against the risk of damages if the forecast is wrong. Seasonal forecasts using DCV information could also be used to inform drought triggers. If DCV indices indicate that the climate has a higher probability of dry conditions, drought contingency plans could be triggered earlier. Understanding of DCV phenomena could also improve long-range water resources planning. DCV can manifest itself in relatively short-term hydrologic records as linear trends that complicate hydrologic frequency analysis, which has traditionally assumed that hydrologic records are stationary

Climate change · Climatology · Flood myth · Geography · Meteorology · Pacific decadal oscillation · Precipitation · Sea surface temperature · Water resources · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies · Ecology · Oceanography

• The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S.

  Open Access•David B Enfield, Alberto M Mestas‐Nuñez et al.•Geophysical Research Letters•2001

  Incluir item

• Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

  Open Access•Veronika Eyring, Sandrine Bony et al.•Geoscientific Model Development•2016

  Incluir item

• An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years

  Open Access•Michael E Schlesinger, Navin Ramankutty•Nature•1994

  Incluir item

• Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought

  Open Access•Gregory J McCabe, Julio L Betancourt et al.•Quaternary International•2008

  Incluir item