Forecasting a post-Covid-19 economic crisis using fuzzy cognitive maps
A Spanish tourism-sector perspective
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21699505 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Julio Vena-Oya (0000-0002-8120-6590, Universidad de Jaén, corresponding author), José Alberto Castañeda García (0000-0003-0805-3628, Universidad de Granada), Miguel Ángel Rodríguez Molina (0000-0002-3841-4706, Universidad de Granada) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue | 13 |
| Pages | 2048-2062 |
| Publication date | 2022-07-03 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Current Issues in Tourism (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1368-3500 • E-ISSN: 1747-7603 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/13683500.2021.1944995 |
| OpenAlex | W3177122220 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 42 |
Those in positions of leadership are accustomed to having to deal with complex and uncertain situations. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic has taken this challenge to a new level of complexity. Although econometric models are being used to predict economic scenarios relating to the fall-out from the pandemic, these forecasts do not factor-in the uncertainty generated by new changes announced weekly by policymakers. The aim of the present study is therefore to apply a fuzzy approach to develop a method for providing consistent and reliable forecasting scenarios that facilitate managers’ and policymaker’s decision-making in complex and uncertain situations. The chosen context of the study is the case of the potential consequences of COVID-19 for the international tourism sector in Spain, using fuzzy cognitive maps. This semi-quantitative model can help researchers to forecast the potential impact of major events in fuzzy or uncertain environments by constructing flexible and adaptable scenarios
Business · Crisis management · Econometric model · Econometrics · Economics · Fuzzy cognitive map · Fuzzy logic · Fuzzy number · Fuzzy set · Geography · Management · Management science · Operations research · Tourism · Cognitive Science and Mapping · Computer Science · Economic and Technological Innovation · Engineering · Artificial Intelligence
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| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,33 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2023 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |