Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Coupled Natural-Physical-Social Systems

Cascading Impact of Hurricane-Induced Damages to Civil Infrastructure in Galveston, Texas

Datos Bibliográficos

ID21738424
AutoresEhsan Fereshtehnejad (0000-0002-9717-8520, West Virginia Department of Transportation), Ioannis Gidaris (Rice University), Nathanael Rosenheim (0000-0001-5601-0126, ORCID), Tori Tomiczek (0000-0003-4116-7547, United States Naval Academy, autor de correspondencia), Jamie E Padgett (0000-0002-7484-2871, Rice University), Daniel T Cox (0000-0002-8270-361X, Oregon State University), Shannon Van Zandt (0000-0003-1640-7799, Texas A&M University System), Walter Gillis Peacock (0000-0002-8726-4505, U.S. National Science Foundation)
Año2021
Volumen22
Número3
Fecha de publicación2021-08-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessNo
TipoARTICLE
RevistaNatural Hazards Review (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1527-6988 • E-ISSN: 1527-6996
EditorialAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000459
OpenAlexW3157251406
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas10
Referencias citadas68

The combined effect of storm surge and wave action during severe storms in coastal regions can cause significant damage to civil infrastructures with cascading consequences to coastal communities and their residents with respect to emergency response, repair, and recovery. This coupling of natural, physical, and social systems presents an important yet relatively underexplored problem in the probabilistic risk assessment of coastal systems. Not only does coupling exist among the built and social systems triggered by natural hazard events, but a wealth of sources of uncertainties inherent in modeling these systems also renders the problem more complex. This paper presents a framework for the probabilistic risk assessment of coupled natural-physical-social systems exposed to coastal storms. It departs from traditional literature in this area by considering interconnected coastal transportation and residential building infrastructure coupled with social systems—households in this case—focusing on households failing to respond to official calls to evacuate. A holistic multihazard risk assessment framework is posed for probing these coupled systems in the face of uncertainty. New hybrid risk metrics across built and social systems are proposed, including the probability of nonconnectivity to emergency services, time loss to access emergency services, and the number of nonevacuees at risk. The concept of a hot household is developed, at which a building with nonevacuees inside experiences collapse-limit failure and is disconnected from emergency services during a storm event. The proposed framework is applied to a case study on Galveston Island, Texas, considering uncertainties in storm frequency and intensity, damage to physical infrastructure (buildings, roadways, and bridges), and evacuation decisions of the population. The resulting models offer a foundation for risk-informed decision-making to enhance the resilience of coastal communities and provide new insight into the coupled performance of natural-physical-social systems in the face of coastal storms

Business · Civil engineering · Computer security · Damages · Economics · Emergency management · Environmental resource management · Geography · Hazard · Meteorology · Natural disaster · Natural hazard · Political science · Probabilistic logic · Probabilistic risk assessment · Risk assessment · Storm · Storm surge · Coastal and Marine Dynamics · Computer Science · Engineering · Environmental Science · Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research