Childlessness, child allowance policy, and economic growth

Can childcare support policies be beneficial for all households

Bibliographic Data

ID21876789
AuthorsDaisuke Ikazaki (0000-0001-5451-4718, Japan Women's University, corresponding author)
Year2026
Pages1-17
Publication date2026-04-06
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Demographic Economics (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2054-0892 • E-ISSN: 2054-0906
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/dem.2026.10016
OpenAlexW7150726925
LanguageEN
References cited26

Many developed economies face declining fertility rates and aging populations, driven significantly by the rising prevalence of childless households. This paper extends a simple overlapping generations (OLG) model to examine how this trend affects household utility. By assuming heterogeneous preferences for child-rearing, the model treats the proportion of childless households as endogenous, determined by utility maximization. The analysis reveals that an increase in childlessness generally exerts a negative impact on overall household utility. Furthermore, the study evaluates childcare support policies, balancing the distortionary effects of higher taxes against the benefits of reduced rearing costs and enhanced social security from a larger future workforce. Numerical simulations suggest that while most households favor the introduction of childcare support, their preferred tax rates vary significantly. These findings highlight the complex trade-offs in policy design when addressing demographic shifts through fiscal interventions

Baby boom · Childlessness · Fertility · Overlapping generations model · Social security · Total fertility rate · Early Childhood Education and Development · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics

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Open DOIOpen Access