A century of medical records reveal earlier onset of the malaria season in Haut-Katanga induced by climate change
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21879250 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Joachim Mariën (0000-0001-7023-445X, Royal Museum for Central Africa), Eric Mukomena (0000-0001-7083-4770, University of Lubumbashi), Vivi Maketa (0000-0002-9007-1376, University of Kinshasa), Vivi Maketa Tevuzula (University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Congo (the Democratic Republic of the)), Herwig Leirs (0000-0002-7612-5024, University of Antwerp), Tine Huyse (0000-0001-8164-9757, Royal Museum for Central Africa) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue | 10 |
| Pages | e015375 |
| Publication date | 2024-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | BMJ Global Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2059-7908 • E-ISSN: 2059-7908 |
| Publisher | BMJ (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015375 |
| PMID | 39438071 |
| OpenAlex | W4403637346 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 29 |
BACKGROUND: Despite worldwide efforts to eradicate malaria over the past century, the disease remains a significant challenge in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) today. Climate change is even anticipated to worsen the situation in areas with higher altitudes and vulnerable populations. This study in Haut-Katanga, a highland region, aims to evaluate the effectiveness of past control measures and to explore the impact of climate change on the region's distinct seasonal malaria pattern throughout the last century. METHODS: We integrated colonial medical records (1917-1983) from two major mining companies (Union Minière du Haut-Katanga and the Générale des Carrières et des Mines) with contemporary data (2003-2020) from Lubumbashi. Concurrently, we combined colonial climate records (1912-1946) with recent data from satellite images and weather stations (1940-2023). We used Generalised Additive Models to link the two data sources and to test for changing seasonal patterns in transmission. RESULTS: Malaria transmission in Haut-Katanga has fluctuated significantly over the past century, influenced by evolving control strategies, political conditions and a changing climate. A notable decrease in cases followed the introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), while a surge occurred after the civil wars ended at the beginning of the new millennium. Recently, the malaria season began 1-2 months earlier than historically observed, likely due to a 2-5°C increase in mean minimum temperatures, which facilitates the sporogonic cycle of the parasite. CONCLUSION: Despite contemporary control efforts, malaria incidence in Haut-Katanga is similar to levels observed in the 1930s, possibly influenced by climate change creating optimal conditions for malaria transmission. Our historical data shows that the lowest malaria incidence occurred during periods of intensive DDT use and indoor residual spraying. Consequently, we recommend the systematic reduction of vector populations as a key component of malaria control strategies in highland regions of sub-Saharan Africa
Biology · Climate change · Geography · Malaria · Socioeconomics · Demography · Malaria Research and Control · Medicine · Mosquito-borne diseases and control · Parasitic Diseases Research and Treatment · Ecology
Generalized Additive Models
Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution
The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases
Long-lasting insecticidal nets provide protection against malaria for only a single year in Burundi, an African highland setting with marked malaria seasonality
Colonialism, malaria, and the decolonization of global health
The Anthropology of Infectious Disease
Increased risk of malaria transmission with warming temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands
Belgian Rule and its Afterlives
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |