Association between timeliness of detection, notification and response and the magnitude, severity and duration of disease outbreaks

A retrospective review of 84 outbreaks in Uganda, 2017–2022

Bibliographic Data

ID21879863
AuthorsSooyoung Kim (0000-0001-8804-1162, Resolve to Saves Lives, New York, New York, USA), Joshua Kayiwa (0000-0002-3720-8900, Ministry of Health), Jane K Fieldhouse (UC Davis, Davis, California, USA), Jane Fieldhouse (0000-0002-5450-0970, University of California, Davis), Lydia Nakiire (0000-0002-5633-8014, Makerere University), Mohammed Lamorde (0000-0003-2218-6822, Resolve to Saves Lives, New York, New York, USA), Issa Makumbi (0000-0003-3579-2485, Ministry of Health), Christopher T Lee (0000-0001-7957-1524, Resolve to Saves Lives, New York, New York, USA)
Year2025
Volume10
Issue11
Pagese020034
Publication date2025-11-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueBMJ Global Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2059-7908 • E-ISSN: 2059-7908
PublisherBMJ (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1136/bmjgh-2025-020034
PMID41184030
OpenAlexW4415824111
LanguageEN
References cited23

INTRODUCTION: Timely detection, notification and response are critical for mitigating outbreak impact, yet evidence linking timeliness to public health outcomes is limited. METHODS: We hypothesised that timely detection, notification and response are associated with a decrease in the magnitude (ie, cumulative cases and deaths), severity (ie, case fatality ratio) and outbreak duration (ie, days from outbreak start to end). Using data from 84 outbreaks reported in Uganda between 2017 and 2022, we calculated time from outbreak start to detection, detection to notification and notification to initial response. We used regression analysis to measure associations between timeliness indicators and outbreak outcomes, controlling for disease categories. RESULTS: Longer time to detection was associated with an increase in cases (effect size (ES) = 1.092; p=0.010) and deaths (ES=1.106; p<0.001) and with a longer duration (ES=1.032, p=0.019). A longer time to notification was associated with a lower number of cases (ES=0.935; p=0.002) and deaths (ES=0.961; p=0.024). Time to initial response showed no significant association with any outcome. CONCLUSION: Timely detection is associated with fewer cases, deaths and shorter outbreaks. Outbreaks with high impact potential (ie, more cases and deaths) are notified faster, possibly reflecting a heightened sense of urgency among health workers. The findings highlight the importance of frameworks like 7-1-7 in enhancing outbreak response timeliness and improving public health outcomes

Disease · Outbreak · Public health · Retrospective cohort study · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Infection Control and Ventilation · Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research

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