Projections of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination impact in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan
A comparative modelling study
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21880671 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Allison Portnoy (0000-0002-8467-1324, Harvard University, corresponding author), Kaja Abbas (0000-0003-0563-1576, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine), Steven Sweet (Harvard University), Jane J Kim (0009-0006-7473-1617, Harvard University), Mark Jit (0000-0001-6658-8255, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue | 11 |
| Pages | e006940 |
| Publication date | 2021-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | BMJ Global Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2059-7908 • E-ISSN: 2059-7908 |
| Publisher | BMJ (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-006940 |
| PMID | 34725040 |
| OpenAlex | W3210433174 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 33 |
INTRODUCTION: Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. Our study objective was to assess similarities and differences in vaccine-impact projections through comparative modelling analysis by independently estimating the potential health impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. METHODS: Using two widely published models (Harvard and Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME)) to estimate HPV vaccination impact, we simulated a vaccination scenario of 90% annual coverage among 10 cohorts of 9-year-old girls from 2021 to 2030 in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. We estimated potential health impact in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years averted among vaccinated cohorts from the time of vaccination until 2100. We harmonised the two models by standardising input data to comparatively estimate HPV vaccination impact. RESULTS: Prior to harmonising model assumptions, the range between PRIME and Harvard models for number of cervical cancer cases averted by HPV vaccination was: 262 000 to 2 70 000 in Ethiopia; 1 640 000 to 1 970 000 in India; 330 000 to 3 36 000 in Nigeria and 111 000 to 1 33 000 in Pakistan. When harmonising model assumptions, alignment on HPV type distribution significantly narrowed differences in vaccine-impact estimates. CONCLUSION: Despite model differences, the Harvard and PRIME models yielded similar vaccine-impact estimates. The main differences in estimates are due to variation in interpretation around data on cervical cancer attribution to HPV-16/18. As countries make progress towards WHO targets for cervical cancer elimination, continued explorations of underlying differences in model inputs, assumptions and results when examining cervical cancer prevention policy will be critical
Developing country · Economic growth · Environmental health · Human papillomavirus · Public health · Vaccination · Cervical Cancer and HPV Research · Medicine · Reproductive tract infections research · Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy · Internal Medicine · Virology
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,25 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2022 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |