Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia
A scenario-tree modelling approach
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21881258 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Melanie Bannister-Tyrrell (0000-0002-0161-2952, The University of Melbourne, corresponding author), Alison Hillman (0000-0002-7875-668X, Ausvet (Australia)), Citra Indriani (0000-0002-2884-5916, Universitas Gadjah Mada), Riris Andono Ahmad (0000-0001-9340-3922, Universitas Gadjah Mada), Adi Utarini (0000-0002-3908-5975, Universitas Gadjah Mada), Cameron P Simmons (0000-0002-9039-7392, Monash University), Katherine L Anders (0000-0003-0485-5826, Monash University), E Sergeant (0000-0002-8224-4230, Ausvet (Australia)) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 11 |
| Pages | e013313 |
| Publication date | 2023-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | BMJ Global Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2059-7908 • E-ISSN: 2059-7908 |
| Publisher | BMJ (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013313 |
| PMID | 37989350 |
| OpenAlex | W4388890502 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 30 |
INTRODUCTION: Mel strain), in conjunction with routine dengue control activities. This study aimed to develop a modelling framework to guide planning for the potential elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta, a city of almost 400 000 people in Java, Indonesia. METHODS: A scenario-tree modelling approach was used to estimate the sensitivity of the dengue surveillance system (including routine hospital-based reporting and primary-care-based enhanced surveillance), and time required to demonstrate elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta city, assuming the detected incidence of dengue decreases to zero in the future. Age and gender were included as risk factors for dengue, and detection nodes included the probability of seeking care, probability of sample collection and testing, diagnostic test sensitivity and probability of case notification. Parameter distributions were derived from health system data or estimated by expert opinion. Alternative simulations were defined based on changes to key parameter values, separately and in combination. RESULTS: For the default simulation, median surveillance system sensitivity was 0.131 (95% PI 0.111 to 0.152) per month. Median confidence in dengue elimination reached 80% after a minimum of 13 months of zero detected dengue cases and 90% confidence after 25 months, across different scenarios. The alternative simulations investigated produced relatively small changes in median system sensitivity and time to elimination. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that with a combination of hospital-based surveillance and enhanced clinic-based surveillance for dengue, an acceptable level of confidence (80% probability) in the elimination of locally acquired dengue can be reached within 2 years. Increasing the surveillance system sensitivity could shorten the time to first ascertainment of elimination of dengue and increase the level of confidence in elimination
Business · Dengue fever · Environmental health · Medical emergency · Computer Science · Data-Driven Disease Surveillance · Dengue and Mosquito Control Research · Medicine · Mosquito-borne diseases and control · Virology
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |