Factors driving adolescent tuberculosis incidence by age and sex in 30 high-tuberculosis burden countries
A mathematical modelling study
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21881740 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Silvia S Chiang (0000-0002-2318-3802, Brown University), Megan Murray (0000-0001-6335-0444, Harvard University), Megan B Murray (Harvard Medical School), Alexander Kay (0000-0001-5283-4697, Baylor College of Medicine), Alexander W Kay (Baylor College of Medicine), Peter J Dodd (0000-0001-5825-9347, University of Sheffield) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | e015368 |
| Publication date | 2025-03-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | BMJ Global Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2059-7908 • E-ISSN: 2059-7908 |
| Publisher | BMJ (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015368 |
| PMID | 40044460 |
| OpenAlex | W4408221300 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 33 |
INTRODUCTION: During adolescence, tuberculosis incidence rises, with a greater increase in males compared with females. Tuberculosis notifications and estimates infrequently disaggregate adolescent age groups. Moreover, the factors that drive the increases in overall incidence and the male-to-female (MF) ratio remain unclear. METHODS: infection and tuberculosis disease incidence in the WHO's 30 high-tuberculosis burden countries (HBCs), which represent 86%-90% of global tuberculosis incidence. We derived infection risk from tuberculosis prevalence and assortative social mixing based on sex and age (10-14 years vs 15-19 years old). We adjusted age subgroup-specific risks of disease progression by age- and sex-specific risks of low body mass index (BMI), pregnancy and postpartum period (PPP) and HIV coinfection. We calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) to these factors. RESULTS: , and an estimated 1.0 million (95% UI 0.8 to 1.2 million) developed tuberculosis disease. The median PAF of tuberculosis disease to HIV, modified by antiretroviral therapy, was 1% and highest in Southern Africa. The median PAF for PPP among older adolescents of both sexes was 2.6%. The median PAF to low BMI was 16% and highest in South Asia. The MF risk ratio of tuberculosis disease was 1.2-fold higher among older adolescents, relative to young adolescents. The widening MF risk ratio was attributable mostly to low BMI, with a smaller contribution from sex-assortative social mixing. CONCLUSION: and develop tuberculosis disease. Low BMI is the most important contributor to the overall incidence of tuberculosis disease, as well as to the sex difference that widens with age
Environmental health · Pathology · Public health · Tuberculosis · Young adult · Demography · Immune responses and vaccinations · Malaria Research and Control · Medicine · Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology · Gerontology · Pediatrics
Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories
Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases
IDF Diabetes Atlas
The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection
Development of a WHO growth reference for school-aged children and adolescents
| Highly cited | No |
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