Predictive model of the outage of transmission lines exposed to wildfires

Bibliographic Data

ID22014694
AuthorsTito Ricardo Vaz da Costa (0000-0001-5827-7975, Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica), Ailton Teixeira do Vale (0000-0001-5579-2381, Universidade de Brasília), Clarissa Melo Lima (0000-0001-9940-8863, Universidade de Brasília), Joaquim Carlos Gonçalez (0000-0003-1627-0833, Universidade de Brasília)
Year2023
Volume14
Issue3
Pages140-159
Publication date2023-12-11
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSustainability in Debate (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2177-7675 • E-ISSN: 2179-9067
PublisherEditora de Livros IABS (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.18472/sustdeb.v14n3.2023.50771
OpenAlexW4389780197
LanguageEN
References cited2

Transmission lines are essential for access to clean and affordable energy sources, Sustainable Development Goal 7. Wildfires are an important factor in the degradation of the quality of public transmission service provision. This work sought to build a model to predict the outage of a transmission line when exposed to a wildfire. The characteristics analysed of the spans exposed to fires of twelve transmission lines at a voltage level of 500 kV in Brazil totalled 3,998 km. The logistic regression technique was used for the study. It was possible to reach a model with a hit rate higher than 73% for the occurrence of transmission line outages. The quantity of fire outbreaks, the climatic variables, and the type of biome of the spans were observed to be the best predictive variables available. The temperature rise can potentially increase the number of outages caused by wildfires

Biome · Ecosystem · Electric power transmission · Logistic regression · Statistics · Telecommunications · Computer Science · Engineering · Environmental Science · Fire effects on ecosystems · Icing and De-icing Technologies · Lightning and Electromagnetic Phenomena · Mathematics · Ecology

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